CCL
Reddit attention is surging
- CCL +2.75% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +2.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 3Q2026 Sep 29 before the open: EPS $1.43 vs $1.35 expected (beat, +$0.08, +5.9%); revenue $8.4B. The stock moved +13.4% on Tue's session (+13.6 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, earnings beat (Sep 29): After its 16 earnings beats in the past 5 years, CCL typically lost 0.9% over the next day (median) and was higher only 38% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.3% and +2.6%. An ordinary day: -0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after earnings beats, that ranks #407 of 497.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | -0.1%#472 H | -0.1%#379 H | +0.2%#296 H | -0.6%#382 M |
| Big drop (-3.0% or worse) | 50 | +0.9%#59 H | +0.8%#201 H | +2.4%#206 H | +12.4%#72 M |
| Big gain Sep 29 (+3.3% or better) | 56 | +0.5%#143 H | +1.0%#147 H | +7.9%#89 H | +7.7%#162 M |
| Earnings beat Sep 29 | 16 | -0.9%#407 M | -1.5%#400 M | -5.1%#340 M | +8.3%#80 M |
| Earnings miss | 4 | -2.7%#215 L | +0.7%#140 L | +6.6%#117 L | -8.7%#169 L |
| 52-week high | 8 | +0.2%#211 M | +0.1%#237 M | +1.0%#226 M | -9.1%#291 L |
| 52-week low | 2 | -1.7%– | +1.6%– | +18.8%– | +40.1%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 14 | +0.4%#179 M | +1.0%#176 M | -0.5%#293 M | +14.1%#141 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 15 | -0.9%#427 M | -3.5%#486 M | +3.0%#102 M | +15.5%#115 M |
| RSI oversold | 16 | -0.9%#431 M | -1.0%#449 M | +6.9%#124 M | +16.7%#108 M |
| RSI overbought | 17 | +0.9%#79 M | -1.3%#407 M | +6.9%#152 M | -0.3%#258 M |
| Reddit spike | 8 | -0.1%#47 M | -5.1%#68 M | -2.4%#67 M | +2.3%#40 M |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is CCL's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Crossed above 200-day avg
The close moves above its 200-day moving average.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 14 | +0.41% (-0.7 to +2.7) | Medium | #179 of 497 | 57% | +0.31% |
-4%
+6%
|
|
| 1 week | 14 | +1.04% (-1.8 to +2.6) | Medium | #176 of 497 | 50% | -0.12% |
-7%
+6%
|
|
| 1 month | 14 | -0.52% (-6.9 to +7.9) | Medium | #293 of 497 | 43% | -1.58% |
-14%
+35%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 13 ≈10 indep. | +14.12% (+2.9 to +33.9) | Medium | #141 of 494 | 69% | +7.54% |
-22%
+80%
|
Range of outcomes: all of CCL's crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Crossed above 200-day avg by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 8 | +1.7%M vs 0.0% | +2.8%M vs -0.3% | -1.4%M vs -2.0% | -4.8%L vs -6.1% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 6 | 0.0%L vs 0.0% | -0.4%L vs +0.3% | +4.6%L vs +3.3% | +31.3%L vs +9.7% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 10 | +1.7%M vs 0.0% | +0.8%M vs +0.6% | -1.4%M vs 0.0% | +9.6%L vs -3.1% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 4 | -0.9%L vs -0.2% | +1.2%L vs -0.6% | +4.6%L vs +1.4% | +19.4%L vs +2.9% |
The same event split by where CCL stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest crosses above the 200-day average
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | Jul 28 @ $28.08 | +4.1% on the day | -1.5% | +4.8% | -8.9% | … |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Jun 12 @ $29.03 | +3.8% on the day | +3.2% | +3.5% | -8.9% | -22.3% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Apr 17 @ $28.89 | +7.0% on the day | -0.7% | -7.0% | -14.2% | -10.3% |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Nov 18 @ $25.35 | +1.6% on the day | +1.2% | -0.2% | +10.0% | +24.8% |
| May 12, 2025 | May 12 @ $21.78 | +9.6% on the day | +2.8% | +5.7% | +7.9% | +33.9% |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Mar 17 @ $20.56 | +4.9% on the day | -3.7% | +2.6% | -13.8% | +14.1% |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Aug 23 @ $16.35 | +7.5% on the day | -0.1% | -0.7% | +12.8% | +52.6% |
| May 20, 2024 | May 20 @ $15.84 | +7.3% on the day | +0.7% | -2.7% | -0.2% | -4.8% |
| Feb 22, 2024 | Feb 22 @ $14.97 | +3.4% on the day | +0.1% | +4.3% | +12.3% | +2.9% |
| Nov 14, 2023 | Nov 14 @ $13.67 | +8.7% on the day | +4.9% | +2.2% | +35.2% | +9.6% |
| Oct 10, 2023 | Oct 10 @ $12.70 | +1.6% on the day | -1.9% | -3.1% | -0.9% | +37.8% |
| May 5, 2023 | May 5 @ $9.85 | +6.6% on the day | +6.0% | -1.8% | +27.6% | +80.2% |
| Mar 29, 2023 | Mar 29 @ $9.73 | +6.0% on the day | +2.7% | -2.3% | -6.9% | +73.5% |
| Jan 25, 2023 | Jan 25 @ $10.71 | +1.9% on the day | -2.3% | +4.2% | -2.7% | -19.5% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.