CCL
Reddit attention is surging
- CCL +2.75% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +2.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 3Q2026 Sep 29 before the open: EPS $1.43 vs $1.35 expected (beat, +$0.08, +5.9%); revenue $8.4B. The stock moved +13.4% on Tue's session (+13.6 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, earnings beat (Sep 29): After its 16 earnings beats in the past 5 years, CCL typically lost 0.9% over the next day (median) and was higher only 38% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.3% and +2.6%. An ordinary day: -0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after earnings beats, that ranks #407 of 497.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | -0.1%#472 H | -0.1%#379 H | +0.2%#296 H | -0.6%#382 M |
| Big drop (-3.0% or worse) | 50 | +0.9%#59 H | +0.8%#201 H | +2.4%#206 H | +12.4%#72 M |
| Big gain Sep 29 (+3.3% or better) | 56 | +0.5%#143 H | +1.0%#147 H | +7.9%#89 H | +7.7%#162 M |
| Earnings beat Sep 29 | 16 | -0.9%#407 M | -1.5%#400 M | -5.1%#340 M | +8.3%#80 M |
| Earnings miss | 4 | -2.7%#215 L | +0.7%#140 L | +6.6%#117 L | -8.7%#169 L |
| 52-week high | 8 | +0.2%#211 M | +0.1%#237 M | +1.0%#226 M | -9.1%#291 L |
| 52-week low | 2 | -1.7%– | +1.6%– | +18.8%– | +40.1%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 14 | +0.4%#179 M | +1.0%#176 M | -0.5%#293 M | +14.1%#141 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 15 | -0.9%#427 M | -3.5%#486 M | +3.0%#102 M | +15.5%#115 M |
| RSI oversold | 16 | -0.9%#431 M | -1.0%#449 M | +6.9%#124 M | +16.7%#108 M |
| RSI overbought | 17 | +0.9%#79 M | -1.3%#407 M | +6.9%#152 M | -0.3%#258 M |
| Reddit spike | 8 | -0.1%#47 M | -5.1%#68 M | -2.4%#67 M | +2.3%#40 M |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is CCL's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big drop (-3.0% or worse)
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 50 | +0.91% (+0.3 to +1.4) | High | #59 of 500 | 64% | +0.69% |
-8%
+14%
|
|
| 1 week | 50 | +0.80% (-0.1 to +2.2) | High | #201 of 500 | 56% | +1.07% |
-18%
+30%
|
|
| 1 month | 50 ≈31 indep. | +2.37% (-2.9 to +6.5) | High | #206 of 500 | 56% | -1.27% |
-24%
+38%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 45 ≈15 indep. | +12.38% (+8.0 to +22.8) | Medium | #72 of 499 | 69% | +7.22% |
-25%
+85%
|
Range of outcomes: all of CCL's big drops in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big drop by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 27 | +0.7%H vs 0.0% | -0.1%H vs -0.7% | -5.2%M vs -2.9% | +2.5%M vs -2.4% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 23 | +1.4%H vs +0.1% | +2.3%H vs +1.9% | +12.3%M vs +7.1% | +25.9%M vs +14.3% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 20 | +1.2%H vs 0.0% | +0.3%H vs -0.3% | -4.5%M vs -2.0% | -4.8%M vs -6.1% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 30 | +0.8%H vs 0.0% | +1.9%H vs +0.3% | +8.0%H vs +3.3% | +17.1%M vs +9.7% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 15 | +1.4%M vs 0.0% | +0.1%M vs +0.6% | -5.9%M vs 0.0% | -1.0%M vs -3.1% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 35 | +0.7%H vs -0.2% | +1.7%H vs -0.6% | +6.5%H vs +1.4% | +16.0%M vs +2.9% |
The same event split by where CCL stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest big drops
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Aug 31 @ $23.89 | -3.5% on the day (line -3.0%) | -2.8% | -2.9% | +2.7% | … |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Aug 20 @ $25.37 | -5.0% on the day (line -3.0%) | +1.4% | -1.7% | -12.1% | … |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Aug 10 @ $27.75 | -4.3% on the day (line -3.0%) | -0.1% | -0.1% | -18.2% | … |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Jul 23 @ $25.14 | -3.2% on the day (line -3.0%) | +4.2% | +9.9% | +2.4% | … |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Jul 8 @ $25.51 | -3.9% on the day (line -3.0%) | +4.2% | +3.7% | +12.3% | … |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Jun 23 @ $28.57 | -4.9% on the day (line -3.0%) | +0.7% | -0.5% | -12.0% | -22.0% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Jun 10 @ $25.85 | -6.3% on the day (line -3.0%) | +8.2% | +15.1% | +2.4% | -13.1% |
| May 19, 2026 | May 19 @ $23.77 | -4.1% on the day (line -3.0%) | +9.0% | +17.1% | +29.2% | +12.3% |
| May 4, 2026 | May 4 @ $25.38 | -3.7% on the day (line -3.0%) | +0.4% | -0.9% | +6.5% | +16.0% |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Apr 16 @ $27.00 | -5.2% on the day (line -3.0%) | +7.0% | -2.4% | -9.8% | -2.7% |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Apr 2 @ $25.35 | -3.5% on the day (line -3.0%) | +1.3% | +9.1% | +0.1% | +8.0% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Mar 20 @ $23.85 | -3.3% on the day (line -3.0%) | +5.5% | +0.3% | +13.4% | +25.9% |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Mar 12 @ $23.65 | -7.9% on the day (line -2.9%) | +0.3% | +4.3% | +16.0% | +18.3% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Feb 27 @ $31.19 | -3.5% on the day (line -2.8%) | -7.6% | -18.3% | -24.1% | -10.5% |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Feb 19 @ $31.19 | -3.0% on the day (line -2.7%) | +1.4% | +3.6% | -23.6% | -17.0% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.