CDW
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CDW +1.54% on the last session vs SPY −0.09%: +1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 13): After its 65 big gains in the past 5 years, CDW was higher a month later 30 times out of 65; half the outcomes fell between -6.5% and +4.6%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CDW only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
154.33 +2.8% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
159.72 +6.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 152.41 · prior close 150.10 | |
| Bargain buy side |
145.99 -2.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
141.06 -6.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 144.68 | 2 in 10 days | 155.72 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 145.99 | 3 in 10 days | 154.33 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 147.22 | 4 in 10 days | 153.03 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 138.25 | 2 in 10 weeks | 162.97 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 141.06 | 3 in 10 weeks | 159.72 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 143.74 | 4 in 10 weeks | 156.74 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CDW's daily swings (about 2.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among CDW's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 27, 2024 |
247.88 +62.6% |
| Highest analyst target | 171.00 +12.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 159.72 +4.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 158.67 +4.1% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 31, 2025 |
156.19 +2.5% |
| Now | 152.41 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
150.10 -1.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 148.00 -2.9% |
| 50-day average | 142.00 -6.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 141.06 -7.4% |
| 200-day average | 130.74 -14.2% |
| 52-week closing low May 12, 2026 |
98.25 -35.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 13 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.