CIFR
Moving with its group (XLK -1.4%)
- CIFR −1.54% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: −1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- The tech sector ETF (XLK) -1.4% (-1.5 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Filing: 8-K: other event (item 8.01) (filing)
- Filing: 8-K: Reg FD disclosure, other event (item 7.01, 8.01) (filing)
- Aftermath, 52-week low ($9.79 today so far, below its 52-week closing low of $9.94): After its 5 new 52-week lows in the past 5 years, CIFR was higher a day later 1 time out of 5; half the outcomes fell between -5.9% and -1.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 9 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 69% positive over the week.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight, lowered target $54.00 → $51.50.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.8× its 20-day average.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | -0.5%579/1253 up | -1.1%595/1249 up | 0.0%611/1233 up | +5.4%641/1191 up |
| Big drop Oct 13 (-8.1% or worse) | 64 | — | -1.0%26/64 up | +1.3%32/63 up | +1.8%32/63 up | +27.6%40/58 up |
| Big gain (+9.1% or better) | 71 | — | +1.5%39/71 up | -2.5%33/71 up | -2.1%34/70 up | +18.1%41/67 up |
| Earnings beat | 7 | -1.1%2/7 up | +1.8%4/7 up | -8.5%3/7 up | -18.1%3/7 up | +35.1%4/7 up |
| Earnings miss | 8 | -0.6%3/8 up | -2.2%2/8 up | -1.1%4/8 up | -2.4%4/8 up | +34.5%6/7 up |
| 52-week high | 9 | — | -2.3%3/9 up | -5.0%4/9 up | +2.0%5/9 up | -14.5%2/9 up |
| 52-week low now | 5 | — | -5.2%1/5 up | +1.5%2/4 up | +12.5%3/4 up | +78.7%4/4 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 13 | — | -1.0%5/13 up | +0.5%7/13 up | +14.0%9/13 up | +29.9%10/11 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 12 | — | +0.4%6/12 up | +5.7%9/12 up | +28.6%9/12 up | +28.7%8/11 up |
| RSI oversold Oct 13 | 9 | — | -2.6%1/9 up | +2.8%5/8 up | +19.3%5/8 up | +53.6%7/8 up |
| RSI overbought | 16 | — | -1.9%5/16 up | -0.1%8/16 up | -6.1%8/16 up | -3.1%8/16 up |
| Volume spike Oct 13 | 20 | — | -1.0%9/20 up | -6.9%9/19 up | -2.5%9/19 up | +24.6%12/19 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 2 | — | +2.1%1/2 up | -6.5%1/2 up | +1.6%1/2 up | -25.6%0/2 up |
| Analyst upgrade | 1 | — | +9.3%1/1 up | +6.3%1/1 up | -13.3%0/1 up | -11.0%0/1 up |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 18 | — | +0.3%9/18 up | +0.5%9/18 up | +5.7%13/18 up | -9.8%8/18 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is CIFR's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Earnings miss
EPS below the consensus; entry at the close of the session that first traded on it.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reaction day | 8 | -0.56% | 3 of 8 | -2.07% |
-16%
+12%
|
|
| 1 day | 8 | -2.16% | 2 of 8 | -2.45% |
-8%
+9%
|
|
| 1 week | 8 | -1.15% | 4 of 8 | -3.26% |
-16%
+49%
|
|
| 1 month | 8 | -2.39% | 4 of 8 | -0.55% |
-26%
+58%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 7 | +34.46% | 6 of 7 | +24.96% |
-17%
+90%
|
Range of outcomes: all of CIFR's earnings misses in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Earnings miss by trend
| When it happened | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 7 | -0.9%7 events vs -0.7% | -3.0%7 events vs -0.7% | -3.1%7 events vs -1.0% | -7.2%7 events vs -1.9% | +26.2%6 events vs +4.7% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 1 | +2.0%1 events vs +0.2% | -0.7%1 events vs +0.2% | +12.8%1 events vs +2.0% | +16.1%1 events vs +11.0% | +71.4%1 events vs +61.0% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 6 | -6.6%5 events vs -0.7% | -1.0%6 events vs -0.7% | +4.9%6 events vs -1.3% | +9.3%6 events vs -2.5% | +26.2%6 events vs +5.9% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 3 | +2.0%3 events vs -0.1% | -7.5%2 events vs -0.1% | -7.4%2 events vs +0.3% | -23.3%2 events vs +2.9% | +89.5%1 events vs +11.5% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 5 | -6.6%5 events vs -0.5% | -0.7%5 events vs -0.5% | +12.8%5 events vs -1.5% | +16.1%5 events vs +0.7% | +34.5%5 events vs +4.4% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 3 | +11.7%3 events vs -0.4% | -6.9%3 events vs -0.4% | -8.2%3 events vs -0.3% | -21.2%3 events vs 0.0% | +46.8%2 events vs +9.0% |
The same event split by where CIFR stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest earnings misses
| Event | Entry | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | Aug 4 @ $20.38 | 2Q2026 · EPS −$0.01 (−10.8%) vs consensus · -15.7% reaction | -15.6% | -8.2% | -15.6% | -25.5% | … |
| May 4, 2026 | May 6 @ $21.91 | 1Q2026 · EPS −$0.15 vs consensus · -0.9% reaction | -0.9% | -5.6% | -3.1% | +2.5% | -16.9% |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Feb 24 @ $17.12 | 4Q2025 · EPS −$0.21 vs consensus · +12.5% reaction | +12.5% | -3.0% | -14.1% | -7.2% | +34.5% |
| May 6, 2025 | May 6 @ $3.04 | EPS −$0.02 vs consensus · +2.0% reaction | +2.0% | -0.7% | +12.8% | +16.1% | +71.4% |
| Oct 31, 2024 | Oct 31 @ $4.93 | EPS −$0.04 vs consensus · -6.6% reaction | -6.6% | +6.5% | +41.0% | +27.8% | +17.9% |
| Aug 13, 2024 | Aug 13 @ $3.92 | EPS −$0.07 vs consensus · -0.2% reaction | -0.3% | -6.9% | +0.8% | -21.2% | +89.5% |
| Aug 8, 2023 | Aug 8 @ $3.73 | EPS −$0.02 vs consensus · +11.7% reaction | +11.7% | -1.3% | -8.2% | -18.8% | +4.0% |
| Mar 14, 2023 | Mar 14 @ $1.68 | EPS −$0.02 vs consensus · -7.7% reaction | -7.7% | +8.9% | +48.8% | +57.7% | +49.4% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.