CINF
Moving with the market
- CINF +0.01% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −0.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg (Oct 14): After its 9 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, CINF was higher a day later 3 times out of 9; half the outcomes fell between -1.0% and +0.7%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CINF only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
168.36 +1.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
170.46 +2.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 166.68 · prior close 166.67 | |
| Bargain buy side |
165.00 -1.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
162.96 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 164.46 | 2 in 10 days | 168.91 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 165.00 | 3 in 10 days | 168.36 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 165.51 | 4 in 10 days | 167.84 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 161.78 | 2 in 10 weeks | 171.71 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 162.96 | 3 in 10 weeks | 170.46 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 164.08 | 4 in 10 weeks | 169.30 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CINF's daily swings (about 1.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among CINF's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 200.00 +20.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 191.00 +14.6% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 2, 2026 |
190.94 +14.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 177.00 +6.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 170.46 +2.3% |
| 50-day average | 167.83 +0.7% |
| Now | 166.68 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
166.67 0.0% |
| 200-day average | 165.71 -0.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 162.96 -2.2% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
148.06 -11.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.