CMG
Moving with its group (XLY +1.4%)
- CMG +0.93% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: +0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) +1.4% (+1.4 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 8): After its 68 big gains in the past 5 years, CMG was higher a day later 38 times out of 68; half the outcomes fell between -0.9% and +1.5%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CMG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
31.31 +2.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
32.30 +5.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 30.81 · prior close 30.52 | |
| Bargain buy side |
29.75 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
28.83 -5.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 29.51 | 2 in 10 days | 31.56 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 29.75 | 3 in 10 days | 31.31 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 29.98 | 4 in 10 days | 31.07 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 28.31 | 2 in 10 weeks | 32.91 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 28.83 | 3 in 10 weeks | 32.30 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 29.33 | 4 in 10 weeks | 31.75 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CMG's daily swings (about 2.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among CMG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jun 18, 2024 |
68.55 +122.5% |
| Highest analyst target | 53.00 +72.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 43.76 +42.0% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 21, 2025 |
42.36 +37.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 35.00 +13.6% |
| 200-day average | 34.58 +12.3% |
| 50-day average | 33.98 +10.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 32.30 +4.9% |
| Now | 30.81 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
30.52 -0.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 28.83 -6.4% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 4, 2026 |
28.18 -8.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 21 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.