DRAM
Roundhill Memory ETF
TECHBuy
R500#358 today
$61.78
-0.40% today · -0.21% 1W
Oct 2 close or latest
PreviewWhy it's moving
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- DRAM −0.40% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −1.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, reddit spike (Oct 1): After its 7 Reddit spikes in the past 5 years, DRAM typically lost 4.4% over the next day (median) and was higher only 29% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -5.7% and +1.3%. An ordinary day: +0.8%. Among S&P 500 stocks after Reddit spikes, that ranks #54 of 92. (Low confidence: few independent periods.)
- 4 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 84% positive over the week.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
Assembled from Wallsti's own signals.
Mentions · past hour
0
-100% vs the day's pace
Mentions · 24 hours
4
-70% vs the week's pace
Mentions · 7 days
92
84% positive
Avg sentiment · 24h
+0.042
per mention, −1 to +1
What Reddit is saying
There are a bazillion devices that would actually be safer if they had inference and Micron is the company that turns sand into stuff that can think.
Hottest comment
Micron's revenue rose 346% last year while its cost of revenue rose 10%. Is there a precedent for a manufacturer holding a margin like this?
I believe it's a similar story but I'm not as confident. The RAM producers have enough disclosure that I can figure out their wafer starts and bit shipments (i.e. I know where their fabs are, what the capacities are, when they come on and how bits scale by node). Because I know how much and when bits will grow, I can mathematically infer the selling price. This is not the case with the NAND producers; because NAND scales by layer (unpredictably), and DRAM scales by node (predictably), it's very difficult …
Top comments, summarized
Most recent
Micron's CEO was asked if memory pricing holds into 2028. He answered a different question.
Micron's Q4 was huge, but almost all of the growth came from higher prices rather than more volume. …
- Only about 26% of revenue is truly price protected by the take or pay contracts, not the 35% headline, and Samsung and SK hynix have pulled new capacity forward into 2027.
- Watch DRAM pricing, if the December 16 report shows margins back toward 88%, the bulls are right.
- If price growth falls to low single digits by mid 2027, the unanswered question was the answer.
THE MARKET IS NOT UNPREDICTABLE ITS NOT RANDOM
>The market isn't a chaotic accident; it has structure, design, and intention driven by institutiona…
- >The market isn't a chaotic accident; it has structure, design, and intention driven by institutional logic and algorithmic execution that operates according to specific parameter.
- Now just add in several thousand more and figure out how to read the "mind" of every significant trader and algorithm and compile that information and bingo, you understand 1 millisecond of the trading day.
- Impreass me, what's the opening price for DRAM on Monday.
Weekend Discussion Thread for the Weekend of October 3-4
The last post of wall st engine is real? That will be bullish for memory stocks this week? …
- **JPMorgan sees memory supply remaining tight through 2028, with customer order discussions already extending into 2031.
- JPM also believes Micron's >35% revenue coverage under long-term supply agreements through 2030 could prove conservative, noting Asian memory peers have LTAs covering 50%+ of capacity.
4 days ago
Another Beat by Micron
# How Much Growth is Due to Price Increases?
According to slide 23 and slide 34 of the presentation…
- According to slide 23 and slide 34 of the presentation, **price increases (Average Selling Price / ASP expansion) accounted for the overwhelming majority of Micron's sequential revenue growth in Q4 FY26**, far outpacing bit shipment volume growth:
- * **DRAM:** While unit shipments grew modestly at mid-single digits, prices jumped in the high-teens, meaning higher pricing contributed roughly **three to four times more** to DRAM's $8.44 billion sequential revenue gain than volume did.
- * **NAND:** Out of the 42% sequential increase, volume accounted for $(1 + 0.10) - 1 = 10\\%$, while pricing added an additional \~30% multiplicative uplift $((1 + 0.10) \\times (1 + 0.30) \\approx 1.43)$.
- Therefore, **more than 100% of MCBU's 14% sequential revenue growth** came entirely from higher pricing and mix.
- * **Forward Pricing Power:** Micron disclosed that it has already contracted the vast majority of its calendar 2027 HBM supply with "significant price increases year over year," and 75% of its $32 billion in SCA customer commitments have established pricing bands or floor mechanisms.
Better choice than VOO for 5-7 year horizon?
There is no better investment. We can split hairs on potentially better ones, but no one will be abl…
- We can split hairs on potentially better ones, but no one will be able to make a 100% convincing argument on something better for 5-7 years.
- That being said it sounds like you're talking about fun money.
- I like DRAM (you could just buy MU and probably get the same results) and GOOGL.
- They both move at least 3X whatever VOO does daily so it satisfies my horse racing portion of brain.
Micron tops Q4 estimates on top and bottom line, offers strong Q1 outlook
I think it's groundhog day for MU, again, and the trailing PE compression will again be extreme. But…
- But, now there's a min EPS figure in place, which is a lot less than expectations, that's just the cash in escrow.
- Importantly, it was spelled out on the call that HBM would be more convex going forward and that was where the focus was shifting.
- Both SKHY and MU made the same moves towards HBM, indicating that DRAM and NAND were smaller bottlenecks.
- The market is pricing a go down to the Winchestor, have a warm pint, wait for agents and caches that live in memory to blow over scenario, but a new price levels where SCA commitments put an in-place bottom-line on revenues that helps keep debt off the books of NVDA et.
- tl;dr: long MU SKHY, probable boring future buyback aristocrats, like the MAG6 used to be.
Micron tops Q4 estimates on top and bottom line, offers strong Q1 outlook
The demand for DRAM is only going to increase in the next few years unless memristors have a ChatGPT…
- There are a bazillion devices that would actually be safer if they had inference and Micron is the company that turns sand into stuff that can think.
5 days ago
Daily Discussion Thread for September 29, 2026
legit all you have to do is buy 1dte DRAM calls for free money. Don't even have to hold for earnings…
Day by day
| Date | Close | Change | R500 | Mentions | Positive | Upvotes | Voted sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 04 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0.2 | |||
| Sat Oct 03 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1.5 | |||
| Fri Oct 02 | 61.78 | -0.40% | #358 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 2.4 |
| Thu Oct 01 | 62.03 | +2.77% | #49 | 22 | 19 | 23 | 5.1 |
| Wed Sep 30 | 60.36 | -1.52% | #376 | 43 | 36 | 54 | 17.6 |
| Tue Sep 29 | 61.29 | +2.66% | #24 | 6 | 5 | 15 | -0.6 |
| Mon Sep 28 | 59.70 | -3.57% | #482 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 0.8 |
| Sun Sep 27 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 1.7 | |||
| Sat Sep 26 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0.3 | |||
| Fri Sep 25 | 61.91 | +1.96% | #66 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 1.9 |
| Thu Sep 24 | 60.72 | -1.91% | #422 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 1.9 |
| Wed Sep 23 | 61.90 | -2.70% | #455 | 17 | 13 | 32 | -7.6 |
| Tue Sep 22 | 63.62 | +3.31% | #20 | 17 | 10 | 18 | -3.0 |
| Mon Sep 21 | 61.58 | +3.30% | #33 | 12 | 10 | 19 | 5.6 |
| Sun Sep 20 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2.4 | |||
| Sat Sep 19 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2.4 | |||
| Fri Sep 18 | 59.61 | +3.17% | #21 | 5 | 3 | 9 | -3.1 |
| Thu Sep 17 | 57.78 | +4.43% | #22 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -0.7 |
| Wed Sep 16 | 55.33 | +0.58% | #91 | 6 | 5 | 6 | -0.2 |
| Tue Sep 15 | 55.01 | +0.38% | #112 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -0.4 |
| Mon Sep 14 | 54.80 | -7.28% | #489 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0.4 |
| Sun Sep 13 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -0.1 | |||
| Sat Sep 12 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1.8 | |||
| Fri Sep 11 | 59.10 | +0.92% | #189 | 0 | |||
| Thu Sep 10 | 58.56 | -4.90% | #492 | 0 | |||
| Wed Sep 09 | 61.58 | +0.79% | #54 | 0 | |||
| Tue Sep 08 | 61.10 | +2.36% | #35 | 0 | |||
| Fri Sep 04 | 59.69 | +6.61% | #5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2.4 |
| Thu Sep 03 | 55.99 | -0.39% | #380 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0.7 |
| Wed Sep 02 | 56.21 | +2.09% | #78 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 1.3 |