DRAM

Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet

• DRAM −0.40% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −1.1 pts of stock-specific move.
• Aftermath, reddit spike (Oct 1): After its 7 Reddit spikes in the past 5 years, DRAM typically lost 4.4% over the next day (median) and was higher only 29% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -5.7% and +1.3%. An ordinary day: +0.8%. Among S&P 500 stocks after Reddit spikes, that ranks #54 of 92. (Low confidence: few independent periods.)
• 4 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 84% positive over the week.
• Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.