ECHO
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ECHO −3.08% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −3.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 8): After its 70 big drops in the past 5 years, ECHO was higher a week later 39 times out of 70; half the outcomes fell between -3.1% and +6.6%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ECHO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
90.22 +2.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
93.23 +6.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 85.15 · prior close 87.86 | |
| Bargain buy side |
85.56 -2.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
82.80 -5.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 84.83 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 91.00 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 85.56 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 90.22 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 86.25 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 89.50 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 81.22 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 95.04 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 82.80 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 93.23 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 84.30 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 91.57 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ECHO's daily swings (about 2.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -4.4% | — | — | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -4.2% | +5.4% | +2.3% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -4.0% | -4.3% | -2.9% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -5.2% | 0.0% | +0.4% | -4.0% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -7.7% | -13.0% | -19.1% | -15.8% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -6.7% | -1.9% | -17.2% | -22.8% |
| May 21, 2026 | -9.4% | +0.6% | -19.1% | -32.4% |
| Apr 21, 2026 | -8.3% | -0.1% | +14.5% | -25.5% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among ECHO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 156.00 +83.2% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 20, 2026 |
141.80 +66.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 128.67 +51.1% |
| 200-day average | 108.21 +27.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 103.00 +21.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 93.23 +9.5% |
| 50-day average | 90.80 +6.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
87.86 +3.2% |
| Now | 85.15 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 82.80 -2.8% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 17, 2025 |
66.93 -21.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 19 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.