EL

Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet

• EL +1.97% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +1.2 pts of stock-specific move.
• Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg (Oct 2): After its 8 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, EL typically lost 5.1% over the next month (median) and was higher only 38% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -12.1% and +2.2%. An ordinary month: -2.4%. Among S&P 500 stocks after crosses above the 200-day average, that ranks #362 of 497.
• Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.