EWY
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- EWY −3.05% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −3.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 3.0× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices EWY only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
164.54 +2.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
170.56 +6.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 154.96 · prior close 159.83 | |
| Bargain buy side |
155.25 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
149.77 -6.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 153.79 | 2 in 10 days | 166.10 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 155.25 | 3 in 10 days | 164.54 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 156.62 | 4 in 10 days | 163.10 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 146.65 | 2 in 10 weeks | 174.20 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 149.77 | 3 in 10 weeks | 170.56 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 152.75 | 4 in 10 weeks | 167.24 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From EWY's daily swings (about 3.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | -2.6% | -10.6% | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -3.6% | -1.5% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -4.2% | -0.2% | -3.0% | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -2.8% | +8.5% | +5.9% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -8.1% | +5.9% | +7.3% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -3.0% | +8.8% | +15.1% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -6.3% | -3.6% | +6.6% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | -3.0% | -0.7% | +4.1% | -3.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among EWY's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 18, 2026 |
219.20 +41.5% |
| 50-day average | 179.21 +15.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 170.56 +10.1% |
| 200-day average | 159.91 +3.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
159.83 +3.1% |
| Now | 154.96 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 149.77 -3.3% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
80.87 -47.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 26 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.