EXE
Moving with the market
- EXE −0.36% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: −0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 13): After its 45 big gains in the past 5 years, EXE was higher a month later 18 times out of 45; half the outcomes fell between -6.5% and +4.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 4 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 4 negative); latest: Mizuho maintained Outperform, lowered target $145 → $138.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices EXE only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
92.66 +1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
94.61 +3.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 90.78 · prior close 91.11 | |
| Bargain buy side |
89.59 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
87.74 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 89.10 | 2 in 10 days | 93.17 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 89.59 | 3 in 10 days | 92.66 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 90.05 | 4 in 10 days | 92.19 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 86.67 | 2 in 10 weeks | 95.78 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 87.74 | 3 in 10 weeks | 94.61 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 88.75 | 4 in 10 weeks | 93.54 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From EXE's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among EXE's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 156.00 +71.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 123.22 +35.7% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Dec 3, 2025 |
120.76 +33.0% |
| 200-day average | 96.64 +6.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 94.61 +4.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 93.00 +2.4% |
| 50-day average | 92.47 +1.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
91.11 +0.4% |
| Now | 90.78 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 87.74 -3.3% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 30, 2026 |
84.09 -7.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.