F
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- F −1.39% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −2.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, rsi oversold (Sep 30): After its 10 oversold readings in the past 5 years, F typically gained 4.6% over the next month (median) and was higher 80% of the time; half the outcomes fell between +1.0% and +6.1%. An ordinary month: +0.7%. Among S&P 500 stocks after oversold readings, that ranks #32 of 495.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#219 H | +0.3%#253 H | +0.7%#276 H | +0.3%#363 M |
| Big drop Sep 28 (-2.4% or worse) | 58 | +0.1%#271 H | +0.6%#196 H | +3.1%#87 H | +4.8%#196 M |
| Big gain (+2.5% or better) | 56 | +0.2%#157 H | +0.2%#353 H | +0.5%#349 H | +6.1%#133 M |
| Earnings beat | 14 | -1.6%#483 M | +0.8%#167 M | +1.6%#232 M | +1.8%#262 M |
| Earnings miss | 5 | -0.4%#243 L | +0.6%#139 L | +2.6%#114 L | +0.3%#190 L |
| 52-week high | 7 | +0.2%#200 L | -2.1%#388 L | -1.6%#273 L | +0.3%#230 L |
| 52-week low | 3 | -0.2%#134 L | +7.7%#20 L | +11.1%#16 L | +20.1%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 11 | -0.5%#356 M | +1.0%#107 M | -0.2%#331 M | -0.9%#433 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 15 | +0.7%#28 M | -0.6%#395 M | +0.7%#264 M | +3.7%#256 M |
| RSI oversold Sep 30 | 11 | +0.3%#204 M | -0.8%#352 M | +4.6%#32 M | +11.0%#128 M |
| RSI overbought | 13 | -0.1%#269 M | +1.2%#186 M | -5.3%#470 M | -10.6%#428 M |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is F's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Crossed above 200-day avg
The close moves above its 200-day moving average.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 11 | -0.50% (-2.0 to +0.3) | Medium | #356 of 497 | 36% | -0.79% |
-5%
+2%
|
|
| 1 week | 11 | +0.95% (+0.6 to +2.7) | Medium | #107 of 497 | 73% | +0.90% |
-8%
+6%
|
|
| 1 month | 11 | -0.24% (-5.2 to +3.6) | Medium | #331 of 497 | 45% | -0.38% |
-9%
+19%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 11 ≈9 indep. | -0.90% (-3.2 to +6.0) | Medium | #433 of 494 | 45% | -5.89% |
-14%
+22%
|
Range of outcomes: all of F's crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Crossed above 200-day avg by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 10 | -0.9%M vs 0.0% | +1.6%M vs -0.1% | +1.0%M vs -0.5% | +1.3%M vs -1.6% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 1 | +1.5%– vs +0.1% | +0.9%– vs +0.4% | -1.6%– vs +1.5% | -9.7%– vs +2.5% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 10 | -0.9%M vs 0.0% | +0.9%M vs -0.1% | +0.3%M vs -0.7% | +1.3%M vs -0.9% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 1 | +1.9%– vs +0.1% | +5.4%– vs +0.4% | -0.2%– vs +2.6% | -1.4%– vs +1.5% |
The same event split by where F stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest crosses above the 200-day average
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2026 | Apr 14 @ $12.42 | +4.5% on the day | 0.0% | +0.6% | +8.1% | +13.0% |
| Apr 29, 2025 | Apr 29 @ $9.43 | +1.3% on the day | -1.4% | +2.9% | +2.2% | +8.7% |
| Feb 1, 2024 | Feb 1 @ $10.18 | +3.2% on the day | +0.3% | +6.0% | +8.1% | +6.0% |
| Dec 14, 2023 | Dec 14 @ $10.16 | +7.5% on the day | -0.5% | +2.2% | -6.7% | +3.5% |
| Sep 12, 2023 | Sep 12 @ $10.31 | +1.9% on the day | +1.5% | +0.9% | -1.6% | -9.7% |
| May 30, 2023 | May 30 @ $10.31 | +4.1% on the day | -4.7% | +2.7% | +18.7% | -3.2% |
| Mar 31, 2023 | Mar 31 @ $10.19 | +2.5% on the day | +0.6% | +1.0% | -5.2% | +22.5% |
| Mar 1, 2023 | Mar 1 @ $9.97 | +2.1% on the day | +1.9% | +5.4% | -0.2% | -1.4% |
| Jan 12, 2023 | Jan 12 @ $10.22 | +1.6% on the day | -5.3% | -7.7% | +3.6% | -0.9% |
| Nov 11, 2022 | Nov 11 @ $10.92 | +2.3% on the day | -2.0% | -2.5% | -5.4% | -3.9% |
| Aug 16, 2022 | Aug 16 @ $12.37 | +0.7% on the day | -2.4% | -6.8% | -9.4% | -13.5% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.