F
Up more than its evs & autos peers
- F +1.58% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: +1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- More than its group: its evs & autos peers +0.8% (+0.9 pts vs SPY).
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: UBS maintained Buy, lowered target $17.00 → $15.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices F only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
12.25 +1.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
12.49 +3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 12.24 · prior close 12.05 | |
| Bargain buy side |
11.86 -1.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
11.62 -3.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 11.80 | 2 in 10 days | 12.31 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 11.86 | 3 in 10 days | 12.25 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 11.92 | 4 in 10 days | 12.19 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 11.49 | 2 in 10 weeks | 12.64 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 11.62 | 3 in 10 weeks | 12.49 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 11.75 | 4 in 10 weeks | 12.36 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From F's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among F's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 20.00 +63.4% |
| All-time closing high Jan 14, 2022 |
18.57 +51.7% |
| 52-week closing high May 29, 2026 |
17.25 +41.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 15.75 +28.7% |
| 50-day average | 13.33 +8.9% |
| 200-day average | 13.23 +8.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 12.80 +4.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 12.49 +2.1% |
| Now | 12.24 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
12.05 -1.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 11.62 -5.0% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
10.95 -10.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.