FICO
Analyst cuts weighing on the stock
- FICO −0.08% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −0.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, analyst downgrade (Oct 1): After its 2 analyst downgrades in the past 5 years, FICO typically gained 2.1% over the next day (median) and was higher 50% of the time. An ordinary day: +0.2%. (Low confidence: few independent periods.)
- 1 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 75% positive over the week.
- 6 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 6 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Overweight, lowered target $935 → $875.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
What Reddit is saying
It wasn't monopoly-like in the past, it was a literal government granted monopoly because lenders were mandated to use FICO scores..FICO's management got greedy for short term gains and decided to push HUGE price increases year after year, which their customers were mandated to pay thanks to their government granted monopoly..If FICO's management had played it smart to protect their monopoly by only raising prices slightly/somewhat above the rate of inflation each year so that the price increases looked reasonable.Real Eisman Playbook..For real though, he'd been talking about how FICO was abusing their monopoly on credit reporting, and the new comer has a cheaper better product that was gonna break their stranglehold..Seemed reasonable to me, though I only did a small position because I wasn't necessarily convinced there was a TON of downside left.
Top comments, summarized
- It wasn't monopoly-like in the past, it was a literal government granted monopoly because lenders were mandated to use FICO scores.
- FICO's management got greedy for short term gains and decided to push HUGE price increases year after year, which their customers were mandated to pay thanks to their government granted monopoly.
- If FICO's management had played it smart to protect their monopoly by only raising prices slightly/somewhat above the rate of inflation each year so that the price increases looked reasonable.
- The bigger question is how much pricing power and mortgage share survive once lenders have a credible alternative rather than whether today's gap was too large.
- FICO is still entrenched in non-mortgage lending (auto, credit cards) and lender workflows don't swap overnight, but FHFA accepting VantageScore 4.0 starting in 2027 opens the first credible crack in the moat.
- the credit agencies released over 12 years of historical FICO 10T data to allow lenders and analysts time to test and configure their systems before a firm mandatory launch date is set.
- If originators treat VantageScore as a backup print instead of the primary file, this 17% gap can look like an overreaction.
- I'd watch take rates on mortgage score orders and any FHFA language on dual-score acceptance before calling the moat gone.
- For real though, he'd been talking about how FICO was abusing their monopoly on credit reporting, and the new comer has a cheaper better product that was gonna break their stranglehold.
- Seemed reasonable to me, though I only did a small position because I wasn't necessarily convinced there was a TON of downside left.
- My overall take is that there is plenty of money to be made with two scores; however, I think FICO has incredible penetration that will hold for a long time.
- I also think Pultes aggression is largely political to score favor with Trump and become National Security Secretary.
Day by day
| Date | Close | Change | R500 | Mentions | Positive | Upvotes | Voted sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Oct 02 | 661.25 | -0.08% | #308 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0.0 |
| Thu Oct 01 | 661.75 | +11.69% | #3 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 1.4 |
| Wed Sep 30 | 592.47 | -4.11% | #494 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 4.0 |
| Tue Sep 29 | 617.87 | -26.52% | #501 | 24 | 16 | 30 | 1.3 |
| Mon Sep 28 | 840.89 | -2.57% | #451 | 0 | |||
| Fri Sep 25 | 863.09 | +0.77% | #193 | 0 | |||
| Thu Sep 24 | 856.48 | -2.63% | #452 | 0 | |||
| Wed Sep 23 | 879.62 | -3.81% | #489 | 0 | |||
| Tue Sep 22 | 914.48 | -1.09% | #372 | 0 | |||
| Mon Sep 21 | 924.52 | -2.65% | #485 | 0 | |||
| Fri Sep 18 | 949.68 | -1.72% | #417 | 0 | |||
| Thu Sep 17 | 966.30 | -2.53% | #487 | 0 | |||
| Wed Sep 16 | 991.35 | +0.55% | #94 | 0 | |||
| Tue Sep 15 | 985.96 | -1.55% | #381 | 0 | |||
| Mon Sep 14 | 1,001.50 | +1.63% | #116 | 0 | |||
| Fri Sep 11 | 985.39 | +2.57% | #63 | 0 | |||
| Thu Sep 10 | 960.67 | -2.29% | #438 | 0 | |||
| Wed Sep 09 | 983.19 | +5.35% | #3 | 0 | |||
| Tue Sep 08 | 933.30 | +0.11% | #140 | 0 | |||
| Fri Sep 04 | 932.26 | -16.68% | #501 | 0 | |||
| Thu Sep 03 | 1,118.93 | +1.77% | #103 | 0 | |||
| Wed Sep 02 | 1,099.45 | -0.38% | #361 | 0 | |||
| Tue Sep 01 | 1,103.68 | -3.79% | #474 | 0 | |||
| Mon Aug 31 | 1,147.21 | -0.55% | #230 | 0 | |||
| Fri Aug 28 | 1,153.57 | -0.30% | #276 | 0 | |||
| Thu Aug 27 | 1,157.06 | +2.06% | #42 | 0 | |||
| Wed Aug 26 | 1,133.70 | -0.30% | #339 | 0 | |||
| Tue Aug 25 | 1,137.14 | -2.51% | #474 | 0 | |||
| Mon Aug 24 | 1,166.40 | -0.53% | #356 | 0 | |||
| Fri Aug 21 | 1,172.67 | +1.99% | #76 | 0 |