FMS
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FMS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
22.91 +2.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
23.47 +4.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 22.62 · prior close 22.47 | |
| Bargain buy side |
22.04 -1.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
21.51 -4.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 21.90 | 2 in 10 days | 23.06 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 22.04 | 3 in 10 days | 22.91 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 22.17 | 4 in 10 days | 22.78 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 21.21 | 2 in 10 weeks | 23.81 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 21.51 | 3 in 10 weeks | 23.47 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 21.80 | 4 in 10 weeks | 23.16 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FMS's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | -2.4% | +5.1% | — | — |
| Oct 7, 2026 | -7.7% | +4.1% | — | — |
| Sep 29, 2026 | -3.0% | +0.7% | +1.6% | — |
| Sep 17, 2026 | -3.9% | +1.3% | +0.5% | — |
| Aug 4, 2026 | -4.9% | -0.6% | -5.7% | — |
| Jun 25, 2026 | -2.5% | +1.2% | +7.0% | -3.9% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | -2.5% | +3.6% | +8.7% | +8.1% |
| May 13, 2026 | -3.8% | +3.8% | +12.0% | +14.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among FMS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 31, 2018 |
46.47 +105.4% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 31, 2025 |
25.80 +14.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 23.47 +3.8% |
| Now | 22.62 |
| 200-day average | 22.49 -0.6% |
| Previous close Oct 30, 2026 |
22.47 -0.7% |
| 50-day average | 22.37 -1.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 21.51 -4.9% |
| 52-week closing low May 5, 2026 |
19.41 -14.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 30 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.