Moving with its group (XLK -1.4%)
- FSLR −0.71% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: −0.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- The tech sector ETF (XLK) -1.4% (-1.5 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 69 big drops in the past 5 years, FSLR was higher a day later 38 times out of 69; half the outcomes fell between -1.4% and +1.7%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 1 negative); latest: Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight, raised target $323 → $326.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | -0.1%616/1253 up | -0.1%610/1249 up | -0.1%611/1233 up | +1.3%609/1191 up |
| Big drop Oct 14 (-3.8% or worse) | 70 | — | +0.1%38/69 up | -0.1%34/69 up | -0.4%31/68 up | +0.3%33/65 up |
| Big gain (+4.0% or better) | 62 | — | 0.0%31/62 up | -0.3%30/62 up | +1.7%32/61 up | +1.4%31/59 up |
| Earnings beat | 11 | +2.4%10/11 up | +1.2%7/11 up | +3.9%7/11 up | +9.0%8/11 up | +6.8%7/10 up |
| Earnings miss | 9 | -0.3%4/9 up | -0.9%3/9 up | -1.8%4/9 up | +0.9%5/9 up | +13.6%5/9 up |
| 52-week high | 9 | — | +0.7%5/9 up | +1.2%5/9 up | -6.5%4/9 up | +1.9%5/9 up |
| 52-week low | 4 | — | +2.1%3/4 up | +2.7%2/4 up | +10.2%2/3 up | +18.6%3/3 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 9 | — | -1.6%2/9 up | -3.1%3/9 up | -10.3%2/9 up | -10.0%3/8 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 9 | — | -1.4%3/9 up | -2.2%2/9 up | -8.6%2/9 up | -7.0%4/8 up |
| RSI oversold | 7 | — | +0.4%4/7 up | +0.2%4/7 up | -5.6%3/7 up | +7.2%5/7 up |
| RSI overbought | 13 | — | +0.7%7/13 up | -0.9%5/13 up | +6.9%7/13 up | +13.5%10/13 up |
| Volume spike | 22 | — | +0.7%12/22 up | +0.4%11/22 up | +2.7%12/21 up | +13.6%13/21 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 1 | — | +10.8%1/1 up | +8.8%1/1 up | +2.8%1/1 up | -7.5%0/1 up |
| Analyst upgrade Oct 13 | 6 | — | -1.2%1/6 up | 0.0%2/5 up | -2.3%2/4 up | -19.8%1/3 up |
| Analyst downgrade | 3 | — | -1.4%0/3 up | -4.1%0/3 up | -4.9%0/3 up | +51.6%2/3 up |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 33 | — | -1.6%10/33 up | +1.5%23/33 up | -1.0%14/33 up | +28.8%30/32 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is FSLR's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Any day
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1253 | -0.06% | 616 of 1253 | -0.10% |
-18%
+26%
|
|
| 1 week | 1249 ≈250 indep. | -0.09% | 610 of 1249 | -0.41% |
-22%
+51%
|
|
| 1 month | 1233 ≈59 indep. | -0.06% | 611 of 1233 | -1.35% |
-29%
+81%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 1191 ≈19 indep. | +1.26% | 609 of 1191 | -1.19% |
-40%
+119%
|
Range of outcomes: all of FSLR's days in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Any day by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 610 | -0.1%610 events vs -0.1% | +0.3%610 events vs +0.3% | +1.9%610 events vs +1.9% | -2.5%604 events vs -2.5% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 445 | 0.0%444 events vs 0.0% | -0.2%440 events vs -0.2% | -0.1%424 events vs -0.1% | +10.1%388 events vs +10.1% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 591 | 0.0%591 events vs 0.0% | +0.2%591 events vs +0.2% | +3.3%591 events vs +3.3% | +7.4%589 events vs +7.4% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 614 | 0.0%613 events vs 0.0% | -0.1%609 events vs -0.1% | -0.2%593 events vs -0.2% | -0.2%553 events vs -0.2% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 578 | -0.1%578 events vs -0.1% | 0.0%577 events vs 0.0% | +2.6%577 events vs +2.6% | +6.2%567 events vs +6.2% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 657 | 0.0%656 events vs 0.0% | -0.2%653 events vs -0.2% | -1.1%637 events vs -1.1% | -0.9%605 events vs -0.9% |
The same event split by where FSLR stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.