GPN
Analyst target raises behind the outperformance
- GPN +2.46% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: +2.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, analyst upgrade (Oct 9): After its 4 analyst upgrades in the past 5 years, GPN was higher a day later 1 time out of 4; half the outcomes fell between -1.4% and -0.1%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Oppenheimer upgraded to Outperform, target $115.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices GPN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
82.35 +1.8% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
84.20 +4.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 82.88 · prior close 80.89 | |
| Bargain buy side |
79.45 -1.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
77.71 -3.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 78.99 | 2 in 10 days | 82.83 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 79.45 | 3 in 10 days | 82.35 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 79.89 | 4 in 10 days | 81.91 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 76.71 | 2 in 10 weeks | 85.30 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 77.71 | 3 in 10 weeks | 84.20 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 78.66 | 4 in 10 weeks | 83.18 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From GPN's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among GPN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Apr 29, 2021 |
208.02 +151.0% |
| Highest analyst target | 194.00 +134.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 104.94 +26.6% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 13, 2026 |
94.56 +14.1% |
| 50-day average | 87.19 +5.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 84.20 +1.6% |
| Now | 82.88 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
80.89 -2.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 77.71 -6.2% |
| 200-day average | 76.12 -8.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 70.00 -15.5% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 10, 2026 |
62.06 -25.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 26 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.