GWW
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- GWW −1.31% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −1.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 9): After its 60 big gains in the past 5 years, GWW was higher a month later 38 times out of 60; half the outcomes fell between -1.7% and +6.8%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices GWW only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
1,346.59 +1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
1,366.60 +2.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 1,313.14 · prior close 1,330.62 | |
| Bargain buy side |
1,314.84 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
1,295.59 -2.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 1,309.75 | 2 in 10 days | 1,351.82 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 1,314.84 | 3 in 10 days | 1,346.59 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 1,319.60 | 4 in 10 days | 1,341.73 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 1,284.41 | 2 in 10 weeks | 1,378.49 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 1,295.59 | 3 in 10 weeks | 1,366.60 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 1,306.10 | 4 in 10 weeks | 1,355.60 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From GWW's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among GWW's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 1,500.00 +14.2% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 16, 2026 |
1,399.30 +6.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 1,366.60 +4.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 1,331.64 +1.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
1,330.62 +1.3% |
| Now | 1,313.14 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 1,295.59 -1.3% |
| 50-day average | 1,290.95 -1.7% |
| 200-day average | 1,215.67 -7.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 1,100.00 -16.2% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 18, 2025 |
912.82 -30.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.