HII
Moving with the market
- HII −0.04% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −0.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 14): After its 65 big gains in the past 5 years, HII was higher a day later 41 times out of 65; half the outcomes fell between -0.8% and +1.5%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: TD Cowen maintained Buy, lowered target $360 → $340.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HII only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
269.08 +1.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
274.82 +3.9% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 264.43 · prior close 264.53 | |
| Bargain buy side |
260.05 -1.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
254.62 -3.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 258.62 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 270.58 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 260.05 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 269.08 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 261.40 | 4 in 10 days | 267.70 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 251.49 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 278.25 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 254.62 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 274.82 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 257.58 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 271.66 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HII's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | +2.9% | -2.4% | — | — |
| Jul 30, 2026 | +14.1% | +0.6% | -7.6% | — |
| Jul 22, 2026 | +3.2% | +1.1% | +8.7% | — |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +4.5% | -1.9% | +11.8% | -5.5% |
| Jun 4, 2026 | +2.4% | +2.2% | -1.7% | -0.8% |
| May 12, 2026 | +5.0% | -2.7% | -9.4% | -1.6% |
| Mar 31, 2026 | +2.9% | +8.3% | -4.1% | -26.3% |
| Feb 19, 2026 | +4.3% | 0.0% | -7.6% | -27.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among HII's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Mar 2, 2026 |
449.68 +70.1% |
| Highest analyst target | 439.00 +66.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 363.00 +37.3% |
| 200-day average | 338.13 +27.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 304.00 +15.0% |
| 50-day average | 285.89 +8.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 274.82 +3.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
264.53 0.0% |
| Now | 264.43 |
| 52-week closing low Sep 28, 2026 |
257.05 -2.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 254.62 -3.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 16 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.