IBIT
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- IBIT +0.92% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 692 | — | -0.1%336/691 up | +0.4%362/687 up | +2.1%381/671 up | +0.2%315/629 up |
| Big drop (-3.3% or worse) | 23 | — | -0.2%9/23 up | +0.4%14/23 up | +1.3%13/23 up | -10.6%8/22 up |
| Big gain (+3.9% or better) | 15 | — | -0.2%6/15 up | +2.2%9/15 up | -0.1%7/14 up | +14.7%8/12 up |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 4 | — | -0.8%2/4 up | -3.6%1/4 up | -4.3%1/4 up | -5.0%2/4 up |
| 52-week low | 2 | — | -4.6%0/2 up | -5.0%1/2 up | -3.2%1/2 up | +17.8%2/2 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 3 | — | -3.1%1/3 up | +0.5%2/3 up | +11.8%2/3 up | +3.6%1/2 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 2 | — | +0.8%1/2 up | +5.6%2/2 up | +7.7%1/2 up | +3.4%1/2 up |
| RSI oversold | 4 | — | -2.1%1/4 up | -1.2%2/4 up | -2.9%2/4 up | +8.8%3/4 up |
| RSI overbought | 8 | — | +0.5%4/8 up | +0.6%5/8 up | +6.2%5/7 up | +6.4%5/6 up |
| Volume spike | 4 | — | +6.2%4/4 up | +10.8%4/4 up | +12.9%4/4 up | +25.8%3/3 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 6 | — | -1.1%2/6 up | -2.3%1/6 up | -0.1%3/6 up | -13.8%1/5 up |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is IBIT's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Any day
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 691 | -0.07% | 336 of 691 | -0.26% |
-14%
+13%
|
|
| 1 week | 687 ≈138 indep. | +0.38% | 362 of 687 | +0.02% |
-24%
+30%
|
|
| 1 month | 671 ≈32 indep. | +2.08% | 381 of 671 | +0.89% |
-31%
+58%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 629 ≈10 indep. | +0.21% | 315 of 629 | -4.15% |
-37%
+85%
|
Range of outcomes: all of IBIT's days in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Any day by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 293 | 0.0%292 events vs 0.0% | +0.3%288 events vs +0.3% | +0.9%272 events vs +0.9% | -2.9%255 events vs -2.9% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 200 | -0.1%200 events vs -0.1% | 0.0%200 events vs 0.0% | +1.2%200 events vs +1.2% | -12.1%175 events vs -12.1% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 332 | -0.1%331 events vs -0.1% | 0.0%327 events vs 0.0% | +0.5%311 events vs +0.5% | -6.5%286 events vs -6.5% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 311 | -0.1%311 events vs -0.1% | +0.3%311 events vs +0.3% | +2.1%311 events vs +2.1% | +4.6%294 events vs +4.6% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 367 | -0.1%367 events vs -0.1% | +0.3%366 events vs +0.3% | +1.6%352 events vs +1.6% | -3.8%319 events vs -3.8% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 306 | -0.1%305 events vs -0.1% | +0.4%302 events vs +0.4% | +1.7%300 events vs +1.7% | +3.3%291 events vs +3.3% |
The same event split by where IBIT stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.