IBIT
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- IBIT +0.92% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 692 | — | -0.1%336/691 up | +0.4%362/687 up | +2.1%381/671 up | +0.2%315/629 up |
| Big drop (-3.3% or worse) | 23 | — | -0.2%9/23 up | +0.4%14/23 up | +1.3%13/23 up | -10.6%8/22 up |
| Big gain (+3.9% or better) | 15 | — | -0.2%6/15 up | +2.2%9/15 up | -0.1%7/14 up | +14.7%8/12 up |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 4 | — | -0.8%2/4 up | -3.6%1/4 up | -4.3%1/4 up | -5.0%2/4 up |
| 52-week low | 2 | — | -4.6%0/2 up | -5.0%1/2 up | -3.2%1/2 up | +17.8%2/2 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 3 | — | -3.1%1/3 up | +0.5%2/3 up | +11.8%2/3 up | +3.6%1/2 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 2 | — | +0.8%1/2 up | +5.6%2/2 up | +7.7%1/2 up | +3.4%1/2 up |
| RSI oversold | 4 | — | -2.1%1/4 up | -1.2%2/4 up | -2.9%2/4 up | +8.8%3/4 up |
| RSI overbought | 8 | — | +0.5%4/8 up | +0.6%5/8 up | +6.2%5/7 up | +6.4%5/6 up |
| Volume spike | 4 | — | +6.2%4/4 up | +10.8%4/4 up | +12.9%4/4 up | +25.8%3/3 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 6 | — | -1.1%2/6 up | -2.3%1/6 up | -0.1%3/6 up | -13.8%1/5 up |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is IBIT's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big gain (+3.9% or better)
A daily rise among the stock's own best 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 15 | -0.19% | 6 of 15 | -0.33% |
-4%
+6%
|
|
| 1 week | 15 | +2.18% | 9 of 15 | -0.50% |
-7%
+15%
|
|
| 1 month | 14 ≈11 indep. | -0.07% | 7 of 14 | +1.55% |
-22%
+25%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 12 ≈6 indep. | +14.66% | 8 of 12 | +4.56% |
-27%
+44%
|
Range of outcomes: all of IBIT's big gains in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big gain by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 8 | 0.0%8 events vs 0.0% | +2.1%8 events vs +0.3% | +6.0%7 events vs +0.9% | +24.4%6 events vs -2.9% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 7 | -1.9%7 events vs -0.1% | +2.2%7 events vs 0.0% | -1.0%7 events vs +1.2% | -4.9%6 events vs -12.1% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 6 | +2.0%6 events vs -0.1% | +2.6%6 events vs 0.0% | +7.2%5 events vs +0.5% | +14.8%3 events vs -6.5% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 9 | -1.9%9 events vs -0.1% | +2.2%9 events vs +0.3% | -0.7%9 events vs +2.1% | +14.5%9 events vs +4.6% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 9 | 0.0%9 events vs -0.1% | +1.8%9 events vs +0.3% | +5.4%8 events vs +1.6% | -1.7%6 events vs -3.8% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 6 | -2.0%6 events vs -0.1% | +2.3%6 events vs +0.4% | -0.5%6 events vs +1.7% | +19.1%6 events vs +3.3% |
The same event split by where IBIT stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest big gains
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 @ $46.02 | +6.3% on the day (line +3.8%) | +6.5% | +3.4% | … | … |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Sep 3 @ $46.35 | +5.8% on the day (line +3.8%) | -2.4% | -5.6% | +4.8% | … |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Aug 19 @ $38.78 | +6.0% on the day (line +3.6%) | +6.2% | +14.6% | +18.7% | … |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Jun 8 @ $35.89 | +5.1% on the day (line +3.9%) | -2.1% | +5.2% | -0.2% | +23.7% |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Apr 22 @ $44.75 | +5.3% on the day (line +4.1%) | -1.6% | -4.5% | -1.7% | -18.1% |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Feb 25 @ $39.23 | +7.4% on the day (line +4.2%) | -2.5% | +5.6% | -1.0% | +8.2% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Feb 6 @ $39.68 | +9.9% on the day (line +4.2%) | +1.1% | -1.8% | +0.1% | +14.5% |
| Jan 5, 2026 | Jan 5 @ $53.46 | +5.0% on the day (line +4.2%) | -1.9% | -3.0% | -22.2% | -26.9% |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Nov 24 @ $50.57 | +5.4% on the day (line +4.2%) | -2.0% | +2.2% | -2.2% | -24.3% |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Sep 29 @ $64.97 | +4.9% on the day (line +4.3%) | 0.0% | +9.7% | -0.7% | -24.0% |
| May 8, 2025 | May 8 @ $57.62 | +5.4% on the day (line +4.7%) | +1.8% | +1.8% | +7.2% | +14.8% |
| Apr 22, 2025 | Apr 22 @ $52.08 | +4.8% on the day (line +4.7%) | +2.2% | +4.1% | +18.6% | +29.2% |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Apr 9 @ $46.83 | +7.4% on the day (line +4.7%) | -3.5% | +2.4% | +25.3% | +43.5% |
| Mar 24, 2025 | Mar 24 @ $50.18 | +5.2% on the day (line +4.7%) | -0.1% | -6.7% | +6.0% | +19.7% |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Mar 11 @ $47.24 | +5.2% on the day (line +4.6%) | -0.2% | -0.9% | -0.9% | +31.9% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.