ICE
Analyst target raises behind the outperformance
- ICE +1.72% on the last session vs SPY +0.00%: +1.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+1.7% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.6%): After its 59 big gains in the past 5 years, ICE was higher a week later 35 times out of 59; half the outcomes fell between -1.1% and +2.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 1 negative); latest: Morgan Stanley maintained Equal-Weight, raised target $163 → $173.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ICE only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
156.86 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
159.06 +2.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 157.77 · prior close 155.11 | |
| Bargain buy side |
153.38 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
151.26 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 152.82 | 2 in 10 days | 157.44 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 153.38 | 3 in 10 days | 156.86 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 153.90 | 4 in 10 days | 156.33 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 150.03 | 2 in 10 weeks | 160.36 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 151.26 | 3 in 10 weeks | 159.06 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 152.42 | 4 in 10 weeks | 157.85 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ICE's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ICE's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 236.00 +49.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 186.00 +17.9% |
| All-time closing high Aug 4, 2025 |
185.45 +17.5% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 26, 2026 |
173.31 +9.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 159.06 +0.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 159.00 +0.8% |
| Now | 157.77 |
| 50-day average | 155.73 -1.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
155.11 -1.7% |
| 200-day average | 153.79 -2.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 151.26 -4.1% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 29, 2026 |
122.50 -22.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 21 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.