ITW
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ITW +0.38% on the last session vs SPY −0.70%: +1.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg (Oct 13): After its 19 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, ITW was higher a day later 14 times out of 19; half the outcomes fell between -0.0% and +1.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: JP Morgan downgraded to Neutral, lowered target $350 → $277.
- Market backdrop (Thu): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ITW only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
274.36 +1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
278.33 +2.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 272.21 · prior close 271.19 | |
| Bargain buy side |
268.06 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
264.23 -2.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 267.05 | 2 in 10 days | 275.40 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 268.06 | 3 in 10 days | 274.36 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 269.00 | 4 in 10 days | 273.40 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 262.01 | 2 in 10 weeks | 280.69 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 264.23 | 3 in 10 weeks | 278.33 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 266.32 | 4 in 10 weeks | 276.15 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ITW's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 15 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 15 close
Big drop and big gain: among ITW's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 326.00 +19.8% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 5, 2026 |
295.41 +8.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 294.57 +8.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 278.33 +2.2% |
| 50-day average | 272.72 +0.2% |
| Now | 272.21 |
| Previous close Oct 15, 2026 |
271.19 -0.4% |
| 200-day average | 266.33 -2.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 264.23 -2.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 249.00 -8.5% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 19, 2025 |
235.06 -13.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.