IWM
Moving with the market
- IWM +0.68% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +0.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices IWM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
273.62 +0.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
276.43 +1.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 273.21 · prior close 271.37 | |
| Bargain buy side |
269.14 -0.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
266.40 -1.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 268.42 | 2 in 10 days | 274.36 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 269.14 | 3 in 10 days | 273.62 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 269.81 | 4 in 10 days | 272.94 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 264.81 | 2 in 10 weeks | 278.09 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 266.40 | 3 in 10 weeks | 276.43 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 267.90 | 4 in 10 weeks | 274.89 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From IWM's daily swings (about 0.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | -1.8% | -1.4% | — | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -1.6% | +3.9% | +3.9% | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -3.5% | +4.0% | +4.4% | +5.3% |
| May 15, 2026 | -2.4% | +2.7% | +5.5% | +9.8% |
| May 7, 2026 | -1.6% | +0.8% | +0.7% | +7.1% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | -2.2% | +0.4% | +13.3% | +23.4% |
| Mar 12, 2026 | -2.2% | +0.3% | +7.3% | +17.6% |
| Mar 3, 2026 | -1.7% | -2.3% | -3.6% | +12.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among IWM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 14, 2026 |
304.30 +11.4% |
| 50-day average | 289.17 +5.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 276.43 +1.2% |
| 200-day average | 276.41 +1.2% |
| Now | 273.21 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
271.37 -0.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 266.40 -2.5% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
226.81 -17.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 26 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.