KEYS
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- KEYS −6.14% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −6.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (-6.1% today so far, past its big-drop line of -2.3%): After its 66 big drops in the past 5 years, KEYS was higher a week later 38 times out of 66; half the outcomes fell between -3.0% and +4.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Goldman Sachs maintained Buy, raised target $452 → $487.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices KEYS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
365.43 +2.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
375.32 +4.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 335.66 · prior close 357.62 | |
| Bargain buy side |
349.98 -2.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
340.76 -4.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 347.53 | 2 in 10 days | 368.00 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 349.98 | 3 in 10 days | 365.43 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 352.27 | 4 in 10 days | 363.05 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 335.46 | 2 in 10 weeks | 381.25 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 340.76 | 3 in 10 weeks | 375.32 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 345.78 | 4 in 10 weeks | 369.87 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From KEYS's daily swings (about 2.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | -7.0% | +8.6% | +17.5% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -5.6% | -6.1% | -2.8% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -2.7% | +11.8% | +5.5% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -3.1% | +4.0% | +14.4% | +14.3% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -4.1% | -4.0% | -4.9% | +8.5% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -5.6% | -0.7% | -7.8% | -1.5% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -3.9% | +6.3% | -3.8% | -0.8% |
| May 28, 2026 | -2.5% | +1.2% | +0.3% | -3.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among KEYS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 487.00 +45.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 418.00 +24.5% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 6, 2026 |
388.03 +15.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 375.32 +11.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
357.62 +6.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 350.00 +4.3% |
| 50-day average | 343.85 +2.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 340.76 +1.5% |
| Now | 335.66 |
| 200-day average | 310.13 -7.6% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 17, 2025 |
162.19 -51.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 12 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.