KHC
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- KHC +2.60% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +2.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.6% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.0%): After its 68 big gains in the past 5 years, KHC was higher a day later 39 times out of 68; half the outcomes fell between -0.4% and +1.3%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Wells Fargo maintained Equal-Weight, lowered target $25.00 → $23.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices KHC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
23.01 +1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
23.39 +3.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 23.29 · prior close 22.70 | |
| Bargain buy side |
22.40 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
22.03 -3.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 22.30 | 2 in 10 days | 23.11 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 22.40 | 3 in 10 days | 23.01 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 22.49 | 4 in 10 days | 22.91 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 21.82 | 2 in 10 weeks | 23.62 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 22.03 | 3 in 10 weeks | 23.39 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 22.23 | 4 in 10 weeks | 23.18 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From KHC's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among KHC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 17, 2017 |
60.94 +161.7% |
| Highest analyst target | 41.00 +76.0% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 29, 2026 |
27.19 +16.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 25.25 +8.4% |
| 50-day average | 24.10 +3.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 23.39 +0.4% |
| Now | 23.29 |
| 200-day average | 23.23 -0.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
22.70 -2.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 22.03 -5.4% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 23, 2026 |
20.50 -12.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 19.00 -18.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 11 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.