LITE
Analyst target raises behind the outperformance
- LITE +3.79% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +3.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, 52-week high (Oct 2): After its 12 new 52-week highs in the past 5 years, LITE typically gained 16.9% over the next month (median) and was higher 83% of the time; half the outcomes fell between +4.3% and +24.6%. An ordinary month: +2.7%. Among S&P 500 stocks after new 52-week highs, that ranks #93 of 480.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Citigroup maintained Buy, raised target $1,200 → $1,400.
- 7 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#140 H | +0.6%#113 H | +2.7%#120 H | +5.2%#169 M |
| Big drop (-5.6% or worse) | 83 | +0.1%#254 H | +0.6%#234 H | +4.0%#157 H | +15.3%#136 M |
| Big gain Oct 1 (+7.0% or better) | 84 | +0.3%#161 H | +1.6%#168 H | +7.5%#112 H | +17.9%#187 M |
| Earnings beat | 19 | -0.5%#277 M | +5.3%#99 M | +2.8%#127 M | +2.0%#233 M |
| Earnings miss | 1 | -3.1%– | -3.6%– | +11.1%– | +9.4%– |
| 52-week high latest session | 13 | +1.6%#119 M | +1.1%#215 M | +16.9%#93 M | +44.1%#177 L |
| 52-week low | 6 | +1.4%#74 L | +2.0%#89 L | +3.1%#116 L | +9.9%#55 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 10 | -1.3%#368 M | -1.2%#341 M | -9.7%#394 M | -5.0%#302 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 8 | -0.4%#324 M | -0.3%#300 M | -5.1%#433 M | -1.4%#270 L |
| RSI oversold | 12 | +1.2%#102 M | +0.6%#247 M | -4.2%#371 M | +8.6%#204 M |
| RSI overbought | 22 | -0.6%#332 H | +1.9%#104 H | +2.7%#208 M | +7.1%#219 M |
| Reddit spike | 5 | +1.4%#38 L | -0.1%#44 L | -5.2%#59 L | -10.3%– |
| Analyst upgrade | 2 | +4.2%– | -3.2%– | +12.9%– | +77.0%– |
| Analyst downgrade | 1 | -3.0%– | +21.7%– | +65.0%– | +117.5%– |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 6 | -0.2%#16 L | +4.6%#10 L | +8.6%#15 L | +79.5%#6 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is LITE's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
RSI oversold
The 14-day RSI falls below 30.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 12 | +1.25% (-1.2 to +2.5) | Medium | #102 of 496 | 67% | +0.38% |
-6%
+6%
|
|
| 1 week | 12 | +0.65% (-1.7 to +1.3) | Medium | #247 of 496 | 58% | +0.08% |
-7%
+12%
|
|
| 1 month | 12 ≈11 indep. | -4.19% (-9.2 to +7.7) | Medium | #371 of 495 | 42% | -2.57% |
-19%
+34%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 12 ≈9 indep. | +8.61% (+2.1 to +21.8) | Medium | #204 of 493 | 75% | +7.67% |
-31%
+58%
|
Range of outcomes: all of LITE's oversold readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI oversold by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
| Below its 200-day avg | 11 | +0.8%M vs +0.1% | +0.1%M vs 0.0% | -5.3%M vs -1.3% | +14.4%M vs +2.1% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
| Below its 50-day avg | 12 | +1.2%M vs -0.1% | +0.6%M vs -0.2% | -4.2%M vs -1.8% | +8.6%M vs +1.2% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
| Below its 20-day avg | 12 | +1.2%M vs 0.0% | +0.6%M vs +0.2% | -4.2%M vs -0.5% | +8.6%M vs +1.5% |
The same event split by where LITE stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest oversold readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2025 | Mar 6 @ $61.09 | RSI 29.6, -9.3% on the day | +1.7% | -1.3% | -18.9% | +33.6% |
| Aug 5, 2024 | Aug 5 @ $41.47 | RSI 28.7, -6.5% on the day | +0.3% | +8.4% | +33.7% | +57.6% |
| Oct 18, 2023 | Oct 18 @ $39.84 | RSI 29.9, -3.4% on the day | -1.2% | -7.3% | +9.9% | +35.0% |
| Sep 27, 2023 | Sep 27 @ $43.83 | RSI 28.8, -2.2% on the day | +2.6% | -1.7% | -17.6% | +21.8% |
| May 11, 2023 | May 11 @ $43.30 | RSI 29.8, -2.8% on the day | -2.5% | +9.4% | +23.1% | +14.4% |
| Apr 6, 2023 | Apr 6 @ $46.33 | RSI 29.5, -9.7% on the day | +2.5% | -2.4% | +3.4% | +17.7% |
| Feb 27, 2023 | Feb 27 @ $52.51 | RSI 28.8, -2.5% on the day | +2.5% | +1.2% | -3.1% | +2.1% |
| Nov 28, 2022 | Nov 28 @ $54.39 | RSI 29.2, -2.6% on the day | -1.6% | +0.1% | -9.2% | -2.9% |
| Nov 8, 2022 | Nov 8 @ $59.00 | RSI 24.3, -16.2% on the day | -6.4% | -2.2% | -5.6% | +2.2% |
| Oct 14, 2022 | Oct 14 @ $65.70 | RSI 27.7, -5.0% on the day | +6.2% | +9.4% | -13.9% | -11.4% |
| Sep 6, 2022 | Sep 6 @ $78.44 | RSI 29.6, -1.4% on the day | +0.8% | +1.3% | -5.3% | -30.6% |
| Feb 3, 2022 | Feb 3 @ $86.37 | RSI 28.7, -14.4% on the day | +4.7% | +12.2% | +7.7% | +2.8% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.