LITE
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- LITE −4.67% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: −4.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 8): After its 81 big drops in the past 5 years, LITE was higher a month later 51 times out of 81; half the outcomes fell between -6.1% and +19.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Stifel maintained Buy, raised target $1,100 → $1,232.
- 5 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.5× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LITE only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
945.28 +5.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
1,009.48 +12.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 854.46 · prior close 896.33 | |
| Bargain buy side |
849.92 -5.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
795.86 -11.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 835.37 | 2 in 10 days | 961.74 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 849.92 | 3 in 10 days | 945.28 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 863.71 | 4 in 10 days | 930.18 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 765.72 | 2 in 10 weeks | 1,049.23 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 795.86 | 3 in 10 weeks | 1,009.48 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 825.03 | 4 in 10 weeks | 973.79 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LITE's daily swings (about 5.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -5.6% | — | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -9.9% | +14.3% | +18.3% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -6.4% | -1.5% | +8.8% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -9.9% | +1.4% | +2.3% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | -8.6% | +19.1% | +21.6% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -8.5% | -6.4% | +8.8% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | -7.7% | +10.3% | +17.1% | +31.4% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | -5.2% | -10.5% | -20.2% | +15.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among LITE's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 1,400.00 +63.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 1,161.96 +36.0% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 6, 2026 |
1,133.40 +32.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 1,009.48 +18.1% |
| 50-day average | 931.63 +9.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
896.33 +4.9% |
| Now | 854.46 |
| Lowest analyst target | 820.00 -4.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 795.86 -6.9% |
| 200-day average | 775.13 -9.3% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2025 |
156.57 -81.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 11 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.