MA
Analyst target raises behind the outperformance
- MA +1.86% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +1.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+1.9% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.7%): After its 54 big gains in the past 5 years, MA was higher a week later 34 times out of 54; half the outcomes fell between -1.3% and +2.3%. History, not a forecast.
- 4 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 83% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.9× its recent daily average.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Baird maintained Outperform, raised target $660 → $710.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
610.42 +1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
619.42 +2.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 614.46 · prior close 603.24 | |
| Bargain buy side |
596.14 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
587.49 -2.6% ↑ more often while near its 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 29% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 593.86 | 2 in 10 days | 612.77 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 596.14 | 3 in 10 days | 610.42 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 598.28 | 4 in 10 days | 608.24 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 582.46 | 2 in 10 weeks↑ 20% vs 18% | 624.76 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 587.49 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 29% vs 27% | 619.42 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 592.21 | 4 in 10 weeks↑ 44% vs 43% | 614.47 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MA's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 29% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among MA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 760.00 +23.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 670.69 +9.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 619.42 +0.8% |
| Now | 614.46 |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
614.46 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
603.24 -1.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 587.49 -4.4% |
| 50-day average | 573.97 -6.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 550.00 -10.5% |
| 200-day average | 531.11 -13.6% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 3, 2026 |
470.05 -23.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 20 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.