MCHP
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MCHP +3.59% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +2.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, crossed below 200-day avg (Sep 30): After its 12 crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, MCHP typically gained 2.0% over the next day (median) and was higher 83% of the time; half the outcomes fell between +0.8% and +2.2%. An ordinary day: +0.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after crosses below the 200-day average, that ranks #2 of 497.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | 0.0%#367 H | -0.1%#444 H | -0.9%#460 H | +0.6%#331 M |
| Big drop (-3.4% or worse) | 61 | +0.6%#30 H | -0.2%#431 H | -2.3%#470 H | 0.0%#300 M |
| Big gain (+3.4% or better) | 63 | +0.1%#241 H | +1.5%#102 H | -0.1%#287 H | +1.1%#318 M |
| Earnings beat | 18 | -1.1%#484 M | -1.9%#415 M | 0.0%#303 M | -2.2%#323 M |
| Earnings miss | 2 | +0.1%– | +4.7%– | +1.7%– | -7.0%– |
| 52-week high | 9 | -1.5%#429 M | -2.7%#399 M | +2.2%#210 M | -5.6%#448 M |
| 52-week low | 4 | -0.9%#207 L | -2.1%#225 L | -3.6%#165 L | -9.7%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 14 | +0.5%#123 M | +2.5%#109 M | +7.3%#98 M | +7.1%#144 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg Sep 30 | 12 | +2.0%#2 M | +3.5%#106 M | +6.4%#51 M | +15.8%#54 M |
| RSI oversold | 10 | -0.3%#338 M | -0.1%#260 M | +5.0%#105 M | +16.1%#200 M |
| RSI overbought | 15 | +0.4%#195 M | -0.6%#315 M | -2.6%#329 M | -0.1%#378 M |
| Reddit spike | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is MCHP's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
RSI overbought
The 14-day RSI rises above 70.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 15 | +0.36% (-1.1 to +1.1) | Medium | #195 of 501 | 53% | -0.10% |
-5%
+2%
|
|
| 1 week | 15 | -0.64% (-2.2 to +2.1) | Medium | #315 of 501 | 47% | -1.23% |
-5%
+18%
|
|
| 1 month | 15 ≈14 indep. | -2.62% (-4.5 to +4.2) | Medium | #329 of 501 | 47% | +0.34% |
-19%
+22%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 15 ≈12 indep. | -0.14% (-3.7 to +0.6) | Medium | #378 of 501 | 47% | -3.69% |
-19%
+13%
|
Range of outcomes: all of MCHP's overbought readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI overbought by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 12 | -0.9%M vs -0.2% | -0.3%M vs -0.3% | -3.0%M vs -1.7% | -0.2%M vs +0.5% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 2 | +1.7%– vs +0.3% | -3.0%– vs +0.1% | -2.1%– vs +0.4% | +1.5%– vs +9.5% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 14 | -0.1%M vs -0.1% | -0.9%M vs -0.3% | -3.0%M vs -2.7% | -0.2%M vs -2.4% |
| Below its 50-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 15 | +0.4%M vs -0.2% | -0.6%M vs -0.2% | -2.6%M vs -1.7% | -0.1%M vs -2.4% |
| Below its 20-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where MCHP stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest overbought readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2026 | Apr 16 @ $76.03 | RSI 72.1, +3.2% on the day | +2.5% | +17.9% | +22.1% | +5.8% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Jan 28 @ $78.94 | RSI 73.4, +6.8% on the day | -1.1% | -2.6% | -6.5% | +13.0% |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Jan 6 @ $73.62 | RSI 76.0, +11.7% on the day | -1.2% | -1.1% | +4.2% | -5.0% |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Dec 5 @ $64.71 | RSI 70.8, +1.7% on the day | +2.3% | +2.1% | +12.4% | -0.1% |
| Jun 25, 2025 | Jun 25 @ $69.29 | RSI 71.9, +1.7% on the day | -1.1% | +2.2% | -3.3% | -7.4% |
| Jun 3, 2025 | Jun 3 @ $61.78 | RSI 70.4, +6.4% on the day | +1.3% | +9.0% | +14.4% | -0.2% |
| May 12, 2025 | May 12 @ $58.54 | RSI 76.0, +10.2% on the day | +2.2% | -0.6% | +15.1% | +6.6% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Feb 19 @ $60.61 | RSI 71.3, +9.9% on the day | +1.1% | -5.3% | -19.2% | -3.7% |
| May 22, 2024 | May 22 @ $93.67 | RSI 70.3, +3.9% on the day | -1.4% | -3.2% | -10.4% | -19.4% |
| Mar 7, 2024 | Mar 7 @ $87.47 | RSI 70.7, +6.3% on the day | -4.8% | -4.7% | -4.5% | +0.5% |
| Dec 11, 2023 | Dec 11 @ $82.86 | RSI 72.4, +3.3% on the day | +0.4% | +2.7% | -3.6% | +2.4% |
| Feb 2, 2023 | Feb 2 @ $77.26 | RSI 70.9, +4.2% on the day | +1.0% | +0.4% | -2.6% | -9.7% |
| Nov 11, 2022 | Nov 11 @ $69.00 | RSI 71.1, +2.6% on the day | -1.2% | -2.2% | +2.5% | +12.4% |
| Aug 3, 2022 | Aug 3 @ $66.35 | RSI 74.5, +5.7% on the day | -0.6% | -3.5% | -10.9% | -14.5% |
| Nov 2, 2021 | Nov 2 @ $70.64 | RSI 71.4, +2.4% on the day | +1.3% | +5.3% | +7.2% | +0.6% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.