MCHP
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MCHP +2.95% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +2.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Against the group: its semiconductors peers -0.9% (-1.0 pts vs SPY).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MCHP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
73.05 +2.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
75.34 +5.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 73.35 · prior close 71.25 | |
| Bargain buy side |
69.49 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
67.38 -5.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 68.93 | 2 in 10 days | 73.65 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 69.49 | 3 in 10 days | 73.05 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 70.02 | 4 in 10 days | 72.50 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 66.17 | 2 in 10 weeks | 76.72 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 67.38 | 3 in 10 weeks | 75.34 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 68.53 | 4 in 10 weeks | 74.08 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MCHP's daily swings (about 2.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -4.0% | -8.7% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -3.7% | +4.6% | +3.7% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -3.6% | +2.1% | -5.5% | — |
| Jul 23, 2026 | -4.3% | -7.8% | -6.5% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -4.9% | -4.4% | -3.8% | -9.8% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | -4.6% | +4.7% | -11.1% | -6.7% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -9.2% | -2.2% | -12.8% | -18.2% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -3.9% | +7.1% | -4.2% | -18.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among MCHP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 135.00 +84.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 107.84 +47.0% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 22, 2026 |
102.10 +39.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 80.00 +9.1% |
| 200-day average | 78.73 +7.3% |
| 50-day average | 75.63 +3.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 75.34 +2.7% |
| Now | 73.35 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
71.25 -2.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 67.38 -8.1% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
47.77 -34.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 34 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.