MCO
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MCO +3.75% on the last session vs SPY +0.07%: +3.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Wed before the open: EPS $4.24 expected (21 analysts); it moved ±3.1% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.7% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.7%): After its 57 big gains in the past 5 years, MCO was higher a day later 24 times out of 57; half the outcomes fell between -1.1% and +0.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Morgan Stanley maintained Equal-Weight, lowered target $512 → $470.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MCO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
468.79 +1.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
476.34 +2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 480.12 · prior close 462.77 | |
| Bargain buy side |
456.83 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
449.59 -2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 454.91 | 2 in 10 days | 470.76 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 456.83 | 3 in 10 days | 468.79 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 458.62 | 4 in 10 days | 466.96 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 445.38 | 2 in 10 weeks | 480.83 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 449.59 | 3 in 10 weeks | 476.34 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 453.54 | 4 in 10 weeks | 472.19 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MCO's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among MCO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 610.00 +27.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 558.71 +16.4% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jan 15, 2026 |
536.03 +11.6% |
| Now | 480.12 |
| 50-day average | 477.13 -0.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 476.34 -0.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 470.00 -2.1% |
| 200-day average | 467.63 -2.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
462.77 -3.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 449.59 -6.4% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 11, 2026 |
409.50 -14.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 32 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.