MDB
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MDB +1.31% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +1.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Less than its group: its software peers +2.4% (+2.2 pts vs SPY).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MDB only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
373.25 +4.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
395.33 +11.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 360.95 · prior close 356.29 | |
| Bargain buy side |
340.10 -4.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
321.11 -9.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 335.01 | 2 in 10 days | 378.93 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 340.10 | 3 in 10 days | 373.25 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 344.93 | 4 in 10 days | 368.03 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 310.45 | 2 in 10 weeks | 408.90 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 321.11 | 3 in 10 weeks | 395.33 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 331.38 | 4 in 10 weeks | 383.08 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MDB's daily swings (about 4.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | -18.5% | +7.3% | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -4.2% | -17.5% | -19.0% | — |
| Aug 17, 2026 | -4.7% | -8.2% | -14.2% | — |
| Jul 21, 2026 | -4.9% | +1.0% | +43.2% | — |
| Jul 10, 2026 | -5.7% | -8.7% | +21.8% | +8.6% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -4.0% | -12.1% | -3.4% | +17.5% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -7.6% | -5.4% | -2.8% | +1.9% |
| May 21, 2026 | -3.5% | +5.7% | +1.1% | +35.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among MDB's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 16, 2021 |
585.03 +62.1% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 13, 2026 |
472.29 +30.8% |
| 50-day average | 395.56 +9.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 395.33 +9.5% |
| Now | 360.95 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
356.29 -1.3% |
| 200-day average | 340.12 -5.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 321.11 -11.0% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 10, 2026 |
225.95 -37.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 9 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.