MDT
Moving with its group (XLV +2.3%)
- MDT +1.55% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +1.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.3% (+2.3 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Barclays started coverage at Equal-Weight, target $95.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MDT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
95.74 +1.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
97.63 +3.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 95.69 · prior close 94.23 | |
| Bargain buy side |
92.75 -1.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
90.95 -3.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 92.27 | 2 in 10 days | 96.23 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 92.75 | 3 in 10 days | 95.74 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 93.19 | 4 in 10 days | 95.28 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 89.90 | 2 in 10 weeks | 98.76 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 90.95 | 3 in 10 weeks | 97.63 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 91.93 | 4 in 10 weeks | 96.59 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MDT's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among MDT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 121.00 +26.4% |
| All-time closing high Sep 8, 2021 |
114.63 +19.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 104.44 +9.1% |
| 52-week closing high Nov 25, 2025 |
101.97 +6.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 97.63 +2.0% |
| Now | 95.69 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
94.23 -1.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 90.95 -5.0% |
| 50-day average | 90.20 -5.7% |
| 200-day average | 86.94 -9.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 85.00 -11.2% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 2, 2026 |
72.50 -24.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 53 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.