META
Moving with the market
- META +0.30% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Sep 28): After its 52 big drops in the past 5 years, META typically gained 1.0% over the next week (median) and was higher 60% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -3.2% and +4.4%. An ordinary week: +0.5%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big drops, that ranks #120 of 500.
- 12 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 74% positive over the week.
- 8 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#169 H | +0.5%#108 H | +2.2%#74 H | +3.8%#178 M |
| Big drop Sep 28 (-2.4% or worse) | 53 | -0.3%#464 H | +1.0%#120 H | +3.9%#129 H | +10.5%#69 M |
| Big gain (+2.5% or better) | 56 | -0.1%#386 H | +0.3%#240 H | +3.9%#30 H | +8.9%#40 M |
| Earnings beat | 14 | -0.3%#304 M | +1.0%#128 M | +3.9%#124 M | -3.3%#308 M |
| Earnings miss | 6 | -0.6%#241 L | -4.9%#217 L | -0.7%#167 L | +6.1%#121 L |
| 52-week high | 16 | -0.3%#351 M | +0.8%#160 M | +1.7%#147 M | +6.9%#62 M |
| 52-week low | 1 | +0.3%– | -5.0%– | -27.5%– | -3.0%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 7 | -1.9%#284 L | -3.5%#339 L | -7.3%#409 L | -2.8%#277 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 6 | -2.1%#426 L | -1.4%#336 L | -3.7%#428 L | -1.7%#313 L |
| RSI oversold | 10 | -0.4%#317 M | +2.2%#190 M | +9.6%#41 M | +3.7%#308 M |
| RSI overbought | 20 | -0.2%#372 H | +1.4%#48 H | +4.8%#124 M | +11.3%#109 M |
| Reddit spike | 74 | 0.0%#71 H | +1.6%#3 H | +2.5%#20 H | +2.4%#55 M |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 5 | 0.0%#27 L | +5.5%#2 L | +11.7%#3 L | +8.0%– |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is META's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Reddit spike
Daily Reddit mentions at least 3x the prior week's average (20 or more); entry the next session.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 74 | +0.04% (-0.4 to +0.3) | High | #71 of 92 | 51% | -0.04% |
-11%
+23%
|
|
| 1 week | 74 | +1.64% (+0.3 to +2.1) | High | #3 of 92 | 62% | +0.06% |
-26%
+20%
|
|
| 1 month | 72 ≈42 indep. | +2.46% (-2.4 to +5.6) | High | #20 of 91 | 58% | +0.84% |
-31%
+31%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 67 ≈17 indep. | +2.37% (-2.5 to +7.1) | Medium | #55 of 87 | 57% | -2.98% |
-27%
+55%
|
Range of outcomes: all of META's Reddit spikes in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Reddit spike by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 42 | +0.1%H vs +0.1% | +1.9%H vs +0.9% | +4.7%H vs +4.1% | +5.3%M vs +10.1% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 29 | 0.0%H vs +0.1% | +1.6%H vs +0.2% | -3.1%M vs +1.9% | -3.0%L vs +1.0% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 39 | -0.1%H vs 0.0% | -0.1%H vs +0.5% | +2.2%H vs +3.2% | +2.2%M vs +6.7% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 35 | +0.2%H vs +0.2% | +2.3%H vs +0.6% | +4.3%H vs +1.1% | +6.7%M vs -2.8% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 40 | 0.0%H vs +0.1% | +0.6%H vs +0.5% | +2.2%H vs +2.4% | +2.5%M vs +6.6% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 34 | 0.0%H vs +0.1% | +1.8%H vs +0.5% | +4.1%H vs +1.9% | +1.3%M vs -2.0% |
The same event split by where META stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest Reddit spikes
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 22 @ $736.60 | 288 mentions vs 7.0/day the week before | +1.0% | +0.3% | … | … |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Sep 9 @ $653.17 | 46 mentions vs 12.1/day the week before | -1.4% | +3.0% | … | … |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Aug 28 @ $577.56 | 61 mentions vs 19.9/day the week before | -1.0% | +6.7% | +27.9% | … |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Aug 18 @ $543.24 | 114 mentions vs 35.3/day the week before | +0.4% | +4.9% | +25.5% | … |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Jul 30 @ $538.61 | 344 mentions vs 20.7/day the week before | +3.3% | +9.4% | +7.2% | … |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Jul 22 @ $626.68 | 30 mentions vs 9.1/day the week before | -3.4% | -6.6% | -13.0% | … |
| Jul 10, 2026 | Jul 13 @ $656.21 | 236 mentions vs 70.4/day the week before | +0.7% | -1.7% | -8.8% | … |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Jul 2 @ $582.44 | 66 mentions vs 17.4/day the week before | +3.0% | +14.8% | +1.3% | +24.6% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Jun 11 @ $567.46 | 58 mentions vs 9.4/day the week before | -0.3% | +1.6% | +16.4% | +14.1% |
| May 22, 2026 | May 26 @ $611.29 | 49 mentions vs 7.6/day the week before | +3.7% | -2.4% | -11.3% | -6.8% |
| May 8, 2026 | May 11 @ $597.83 | 89 mentions vs 12.3/day the week before | +0.7% | +2.1% | -4.7% | +0.1% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Apr 27 @ $677.46 | 27 mentions vs 6.4/day the week before | -1.1% | -10.1% | -6.4% | -12.5% |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Apr 14 @ $661.35 | 37 mentions vs 5.6/day the week before | +1.4% | +1.0% | -6.9% | +2.9% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Mar 27 @ $524.82 | 254 mentions vs 13.4/day the week before | +2.0% | +9.0% | +27.7% | +7.1% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Mar 16 @ $626.37 | 23 mentions vs 5.3/day the week before | -0.8% | -3.7% | +7.0% | -5.3% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.