META
Moving with the market
- META −0.42% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −0.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Wed after the close: EPS $6.74 expected (44 analysts); it moved ±7.4% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 53 big drops in the past 5 years, META was higher a week later 32 times out of 53; half the outcomes fell between -3.1% and +4.2%. History, not a forecast.
- 23 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 67% positive over the week.
- 7 analyst actions in the past 10 days (3 positive, 1 negative); latest: Truist Securities maintained Buy, raised target $763 → $1,000.
- 9 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: options price a ±7.1% move through the report.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices META only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
758.38 +2.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
784.96 +6.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 734.47 · prior close 737.54 | |
| Bargain buy side |
717.27 -2.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
692.99 -6.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 710.81 | 2 in 10 days | 765.27 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 717.27 | 3 in 10 days | 758.38 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 723.35 | 4 in 10 days | 752.01 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 679.11 | 2 in 10 weeks | 801.00 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 692.99 | 3 in 10 weeks | 784.96 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 706.19 | 4 in 10 weeks | 770.29 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From META's daily swings (about 2.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | -4.8% | +3.7% | — | — |
| Sep 18, 2026 | -2.4% | +13.0% | — | — |
| Aug 12, 2026 | -3.4% | -5.7% | +12.0% | — |
| Jul 30, 2026 | -8.0% | +9.4% | +7.2% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -2.5% | -8.8% | -11.2% | +11.1% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | -4.9% | +14.8% | +1.3% | +24.6% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | -2.3% | -0.2% | +11.2% | +31.6% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -2.3% | -0.5% | +15.1% | +13.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among META's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 1,050.00 +43.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 813.65 +10.8% |
| All-time closing high Aug 12, 2025 |
786.80 +7.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 784.96 +6.9% |
| 52-week closing high Sep 24, 2026 |
777.59 +5.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
737.54 +0.4% |
| Now | 734.47 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 692.99 -5.6% |
| 50-day average | 652.51 -11.2% |
| 200-day average | 630.83 -14.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 580.00 -21.0% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 27, 2026 |
524.82 -28.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 14 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.