MMM
Moving with the market
- MMM +0.79% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +0.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Tue before the open: EPS $2.39 expected (14 analysts); it moved ±5.3% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 9): After its 64 big drops in the past 5 years, MMM was higher a month later 39 times out of 64; half the outcomes fell between -2.0% and +7.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: JP Morgan maintained Overweight, lowered target $205 → $185.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MMM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
166.49 +1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
169.02 +2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 165.76 · prior close 164.46 | |
| Bargain buy side |
162.46 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
160.02 -2.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 161.81 | 2 in 10 days | 167.15 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 162.46 | 3 in 10 days | 166.49 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 163.06 | 4 in 10 days | 165.87 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 158.60 | 2 in 10 weeks | 170.53 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 160.02 | 3 in 10 weeks | 169.02 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 161.35 | 4 in 10 weeks | 167.63 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MMM's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among MMM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 218.00 +31.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 186.15 +12.3% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 12, 2026 |
182.98 +10.4% |
| 50-day average | 170.42 +2.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 169.02 +2.0% |
| Now | 165.76 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
164.46 -0.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 160.02 -3.5% |
| 200-day average | 159.63 -3.7% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 20, 2026 |
139.86 -15.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 120.00 -27.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 65 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.