MPC
Moving with its group (XLE -1.3%)
- MPC −1.55% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −1.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- The energy ETF (XLE) -1.3% (-1.5 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 13): After its 62 big gains in the past 5 years, MPC was higher a week later 38 times out of 62; half the outcomes fell between -1.5% and +4.5%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Mizuho maintained Neutral, raised target $304 → $457.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MPC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
496.70 +2.4% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% |
511.65 +5.5% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 477.38 · prior close 484.92 | |
| Bargain buy side |
473.42 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
459.59 -5.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 469.75 | 2 in 10 days | 500.58 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 473.42 | 3 in 10 days | 496.70 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 476.88 | 4 in 10 days | 493.10 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 451.65 | 2 in 10 weeks | 520.64 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 459.59 | 3 in 10 weeks | 511.65 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 467.12 | 4 in 10 weeks | 503.40 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MPC's daily swings (about 2.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | +3.6% | -5.2% | +18.0% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | +7.4% | +11.8% | +25.0% | — |
| Jul 6, 2026 | +1.0% | +10.4% | +16.2% | +57.4% |
| May 4, 2026 | +2.6% | 0.0% | +6.2% | +24.3% |
| Mar 11, 2026 | +5.3% | +4.2% | -1.8% | +16.6% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | +3.7% | +0.1% | +6.6% | +21.2% |
| Nov 11, 2025 | +1.9% | -0.3% | -6.0% | -0.6% |
| Sep 9, 2025 | +1.1% | -0.1% | +3.0% | +4.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among MPC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 519.00 +8.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 511.65 +7.2% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2026 |
484.92 +1.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
484.92 +1.6% |
| Now | 477.38 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 459.59 -3.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 409.28 -14.3% |
| 50-day average | 392.09 -17.9% |
| 200-day average | 273.72 -42.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 236.00 -50.6% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 31, 2025 |
160.76 -66.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 15 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.