MSFT
Moving with the market
- MSFT +0.92% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +0.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- 7 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 69% positive over the week.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 0 negative); latest: Wells Fargo maintained Overweight, raised target $700 → $725.
- 3 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#243 H | +0.4%#132 H | +0.8%#262 H | +1.4%#291 M |
| Big drop (-1.8% or worse) | 51 | 0.0%#332 H | -0.6%#453 H | +0.9%#323 H | +0.5%#424 M |
| Big gain (+1.9% or better) | 62 | 0.0%#342 H | +0.3%#324 H | +1.4%#252 H | +4.6%#211 M |
| Earnings beat | 18 | +0.2%#213 M | +2.0%#94 M | +3.5%#122 M | +1.7%#330 M |
| Earnings miss | 1 | +2.9%– | +5.1%– | +4.0%– | -6.5%– |
| 52-week high | 11 | +0.3%#71 M | +1.0%#34 M | +3.1%#85 M | +4.0%#125 L |
| 52-week low | 3 | +0.1%#132 L | +3.6%#51 L | -0.2%#171 L | +24.6%#48 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 10 | +0.4%#173 M | -0.3%#313 M | +2.1%#215 M | +5.0%#208 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 7 | +1.1%#65 L | +0.7%#169 L | +0.5%#262 L | +3.3%#242 L |
| RSI oversold | 10 | +0.8%#80 M | +3.4%#101 M | +2.7%#197 M | -0.6%#348 L |
| RSI overbought | 20 | -0.2%#452 H | +0.5%#151 H | +2.0%#98 M | +2.9%#131 M |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 92 | 0.0%#82 H | -0.1%#82 H | +1.5%#28 H | +2.8%#54 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 2 | +1.8%– | -1.1%– | -10.3%– | -19.9%– |
| Analyst downgrade | 2 | +0.8%– | -0.1%– | +0.7%– | -8.5%– |
| Insider buy | 2 | 0.0%– | +1.5%– | -4.0%– | -5.8%– |
| Insider unplanned sale | 8 | +0.1%#23 M | -0.8%#28 M | -4.2%#32 L | -0.4%#16 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is MSFT's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Mention spike (Trendy)
Daily mentions at least 3x the prior week's average (20 or more); entry the next session.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 92 ≈91 indep. | +0.03% (-0.2 to +0.2) | High | #82 of 92 | 52% | +0.17% |
-4%
+4%
|
|
| 1 week | 92 ≈91 indep. | -0.06% (-0.3 to +0.9) | High | #82 of 92 | 50% | -0.02% |
-7%
+12%
|
|
| 1 month | 90 ≈51 indep. | +1.50% (-0.1 to +3.3) | High | #28 of 91 | 56% | +0.13% |
-17%
+25%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 86 ≈18 indep. | +2.81% (+0.4 to +6.1) | Medium | #54 of 87 | 58% | -2.52% |
-21%
+33%
|
Range of outcomes: all of MSFT's mention spikes in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Mention spike (Trendy) by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 54 | 0.0%H vs +0.1% | +0.9%H vs +0.4% | +2.7%H vs +1.6% | +2.9%M vs +2.2% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 32 | +0.1%H vs 0.0% | -1.0%H vs +0.5% | -2.2%H vs -0.1% | +3.8%M vs +5.5% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 50 | +0.1%H vs 0.0% | +0.8%H vs +0.5% | +1.5%H vs +0.9% | +2.1%M vs +2.9% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 42 | 0.0%H vs +0.1% | -0.5%H vs +0.1% | +1.6%H vs +0.3% | +3.1%M vs +0.5% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 47 | 0.0%H vs 0.0% | 0.0%H vs +0.3% | +2.7%H vs +0.6% | +1.8%M vs +1.0% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 45 | +0.1%H vs +0.1% | -0.1%H vs +0.4% | -0.1%H vs +0.4% | +3.4%M vs +2.0% |
The same event split by where MSFT stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest mention spikes
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 24 @ $497.93 | 51 mentions vs 11.6/day the week before | +3.7% | +3.0% | … | … |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 16 @ $490.30 | 25 mentions vs 6.6/day the week before | +1.5% | +2.1% | … | … |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Aug 31 @ $507.29 | 34 mentions vs 8.1/day the week before | -1.2% | -2.6% | +1.1% | … |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Jul 30 @ $450.25 | 606 mentions vs 50.0/day the week before | +3.0% | +10.8% | +14.1% | … |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Jul 21 @ $397.00 | 189 mentions vs 37.1/day the week before | -1.9% | -1.1% | +21.8% | … |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Jul 7 @ $388.11 | 214 mentions vs 45.3/day the week before | -1.4% | -1.0% | +25.4% | … |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Jun 23 @ $373.24 | 625 mentions vs 92.3/day the week before | -2.3% | -0.2% | +2.0% | +33.4% |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Jun 12 @ $390.01 | 158 mentions vs 51.3/day the week before | +2.3% | -6.0% | +1.3% | +29.6% |
| May 28, 2026 | May 29 @ $449.39 | 138 mentions vs 44.9/day the week before | +2.3% | -7.5% | -17.2% | +14.3% |
| May 8, 2026 | May 11 @ $410.99 | 168 mentions vs 40.0/day the week before | -1.2% | +2.6% | -3.5% | +22.4% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Apr 27 @ $423.11 | 76 mentions vs 20.6/day the week before | +1.0% | -2.6% | -2.6% | -7.2% |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Apr 8 @ $372.82 | 60 mentions vs 19.9/day the week before | -0.3% | +9.9% | +12.4% | +2.9% |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Mar 18 @ $390.21 | 60 mentions vs 20.0/day the week before | -0.7% | -5.3% | +7.9% | -3.1% |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Feb 18 @ $397.08 | 232 mentions vs 53.4/day the week before | -0.1% | +0.5% | -2.4% | +4.7% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Jan 30 @ $427.58 | 174 mentions vs 57.1/day the week before | -1.6% | -6.8% | -5.9% | -3.5% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.