MSTR
Analyst target raises behind the outperformance
- MSTR +3.25% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: +3.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Against the group: its crypto-linked peers -2.1% (-2.1 pts vs SPY).
- Filing: 8-K: Reg FD disclosure, other event (item 7.01, 8.01) (filing)
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Overweight, raised target $160 → $175.
- 3 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 3 insider sales not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MSTR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
149.89 +4.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
158.53 +10.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 147.90 · prior close 143.24 | |
| Bargain buy side |
136.89 -4.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
129.42 -9.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 134.89 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 152.11 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 136.89 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 149.89 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 138.78 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 147.84 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 125.23 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 163.84 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 129.42 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 158.53 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 133.46 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 153.74 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MSTR's daily swings (about 4.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among MSTR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 20, 2024 |
473.83 +220.4% |
| Highest analyst target | 435.00 +194.1% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 21, 2025 |
301.91 +104.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 237.80 +60.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 165.00 +11.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 158.53 +7.2% |
| Now | 147.90 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
143.24 -3.2% |
| 200-day average | 135.68 -8.3% |
| 50-day average | 134.06 -9.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 129.42 -12.5% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 26, 2026 |
82.31 -44.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 28 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.