NBIS
Nebius Group N.V. · Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
$219.71
-7.35% today · -5.41% 1W
Oct 8 close or latest
PreviewWhy it's moving
Down more than its cloud peers
- NBIS −7.35% on the last session vs SPY −0.42%: −6.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- More than its group: its cloud peers -3.5% (-3.1 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (46 mentions vs 12.9/day the week before): After its 33 mention spikes in the past 5 years, NBIS typically gained 1.9% over the next week (median) and was higher 52% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -9.5% and +7.4%. An ordinary week: +2.2%. Among S&P 500 stocks after mention spikes, that ranks #30 of 91.
- 47 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 72% positive over the week · today's pace is 3.6× its recent daily average.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Rosenblatt started coverage at Buy, target $304.
- 7 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 3 insider sales not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Wed): Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026; S&P futures +0.03%, 10-year yield -1bp in the 30 minutes after.
Assembled from Wallsti's own signals.
Latest session
Mention spike (Trendy)
46 mentions vs 12.9/day the week before
After its 33 mention spikes in the past 5 years, NBIS typically gained 1.9% over the next week (median) and was higher 52% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -9.5% and +7.4%. An ordinary week: +2.2%. Among S&P 500 stocks after mention spikes, that ranks #30 of 91.
See the aftermath
Latest session
Big drop
-7.3% on the day (line -6.8%)
After its 16 big drops in the past 5 years, NBIS typically gained 11.2% over the next month (median) and was higher 69% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -5.7% and +22.8%. An ordinary month: +12.4%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big drops, that ranks #128 of 498.
See the aftermath
Latest session
Theme selloff
Cloud peers -3.1 pts vs SPY; the stock -7.3%
After its 30 theme selloffs in the past 5 years, NBIS typically gained 11.0% over the next month (median) and was higher 63% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -11.1% and +35.1%. An ordinary month: +12.4%. Among S&P 500 stocks after theme selloffs, that ranks #31 of 81.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 493 | — | +0.1%#247 H | +2.2%#135 H | +12.4%#84 H | +37.8%#110 L |
| Big drop latest session (-6.9% or worse) | 17 | — | -1.3%#265 M | +1.2%#223 M | +11.2%#128 M | +28.5%#225 L |
| Big gain (+8.4% or better) | 19 | — | +0.6%#237 M | +5.0%#204 M | +8.3%#199 M | +23.9%#214 L |
| Earnings beat | 5 | +15.7%#122 L | -0.6%#250 L | -7.5%#287 L | -1.9%#252 L | +47.7%#160 L |
| Earnings miss | 2 | -2.9%– | +0.8%– | -1.1%– | +18.5%– | +67.1%– |
| 52-week high | 3 | — | +6.3%#1 L | -2.1%#245 L | +12.1%#214 L | +23.0%– |
| 52-week low | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 1 | — | +7.9%– | +13.8%– | +12.0%– | +105.6%– |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 1 | — | +16.6%– | +21.5%– | +28.5%– | +150.1%– |
| RSI oversold | 1 | — | -2.7%– | +21.6%– | +84.6%– | +147.8%– |
| RSI overbought | 11 | — | -2.3%#292 M | +3.0%#187 M | +1.7%#236 M | -2.7%#242 L |
| Volume spike | 7 | — | +4.3%#178 L | +4.8%#198 L | +22.6%#70 L | +41.4%#143 L |
| Theme selloff latest session | 31 | — | -0.2%#44 H | +2.5%#31 H | +11.0%#31 M | +21.2%#17 L |
| Theme rally | 27 | — | +0.6%#38 H | -1.0%#42 H | +15.4%#12 M | +78.0%#7 L |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | 34 | — | -0.1%#52 H | +1.9%#30 H | +3.2%#33 M | +8.5%#31 L |
| Analyst upgrade | 2 | — | -0.9%– | -9.7%– | +3.2%– | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale Oct 6 | 13 | — | +3.4%#20 L | +1.8%#18 L | +12.2%#18 L | +19.2%– |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is NBIS's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Theme selloff
The stock's theme peers (equal weight, without the stock) fell behind the S&P 500 by one of their worst 10% gaps of the prior 2 years, and by at least 2 pts.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 30 | -0.21% (-3.1 to +1.8) | High | #44 of 81 | 47% | -0.52% |
-10%
+17%
|
|
| 1 week | 30 | +2.47% (-0.3 to +5.5) | High | #31 of 81 | 57% | +0.87% |
-22%
+32%
|
|
| 1 month | 30 ≈19 indep. | +10.99% (+1.2 to +24.3) | Medium | #31 of 81 | 63% | +8.90% |
-24%
+62%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 27 ≈7 indep. | +21.20% (+2.9 to +63.5) | Low | #17 of 81 | 70% | +15.55% |
-29%
+163%
|
Range of outcomes: all of NBIS's theme selloffs in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Theme selloff by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 22 | -2.0%H vs -0.2% | -2.0%H vs +1.8% | +1.2%M vs +10.5% | +4.5%L vs +20.9% |
| Below its 200-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 20 | -2.5%H vs +0.1% | +4.3%H vs +2.0% | +3.8%M vs +14.8% | +4.9%L vs +27.8% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 10 | +0.1%M vs +1.1% | +1.4%M vs +2.0% | +11.8%L vs +8.3% | +37.7%L vs +74.8% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 16 | -1.1%M vs 0.0% | +0.8%M vs +0.4% | +23.0%M vs +15.6% | +37.7%L vs +30.9% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 15 | -0.1%M vs +1.0% | +4.8%M vs +6.3% | +4.4%M vs +8.4% | +12.1%L vs +37.7% |
The same event split by where NBIS stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest theme selloffs
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Oct 8 @ $219.71 | Cloud peers -3.1 pts vs SPY; the stock -7.3% | … | … | … | … |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Aug 18 @ $248.43 | Cloud peers -2.4 pts vs SPY; the stock -7.6% | -9.9% | -10.7% | -12.3% | … |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Jul 24 @ $187.77 | Cloud peers -3.2 pts vs SPY; the stock -15.0% | +0.1% | +1.4% | +12.3% | … |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Jul 16 @ $171.77 | Cloud peers -2.8 pts vs SPY; the stock -13.9% | +3.5% | +28.6% | +61.7% | … |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Jul 1 @ $229.18 | Cloud peers -2.1 pts vs SPY; the stock -17.0% | -5.9% | -5.7% | -16.9% | +2.9% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Jun 22 @ $283.61 | Cloud peers -4.4 pts vs SPY; the stock -1.1% | -2.9% | -7.9% | -23.1% | -17.9% |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Jun 11 @ $222.24 | Cloud peers -3.4 pts vs SPY; the stock +5.0% | +4.6% | +29.0% | -12.7% | +1.0% |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Jun 2 @ $260.58 | Cloud peers -3.3 pts vs SPY; the stock -1.5% | -3.4% | -15.5% | -17.3% | -23.4% |
| May 8, 2026 | May 8 @ $177.05 | Cloud peers -3.0 pts vs SPY; the stock -4.2% | +5.1% | +24.2% | +24.3% | +4.0% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Apr 23 @ $157.08 | Cloud peers -2.5 pts vs SPY; the stock +0.6% | -6.3% | -12.0% | +36.7% | +19.5% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Feb 27 @ $91.19 | Cloud peers -3.8 pts vs SPY; the stock -13.1% | -0.2% | -2.0% | +1.2% | +153.4% |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Feb 17 @ $97.52 | Cloud peers -2.2 pts vs SPY; the stock -0.5% | +4.4% | +5.2% | +21.6% | +104.9% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Jan 29 @ $94.91 | Cloud peers -3.4 pts vs SPY; the stock -5.5% | -10.2% | -22.2% | -4.1% | +45.6% |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Jan 21 @ $98.87 | Cloud peers -2.1 pts vs SPY; the stock -0.4% | -2.0% | +1.6% | -1.0% | +57.9% |
| Dec 11, 2025 | Dec 11 @ $94.28 | Cloud peers -3.0 pts vs SPY; the stock +0.7% | -7.0% | -17.2% | +11.8% | +37.7% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.