NBIS
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- NBIS −5.01% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −5.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: Gartner warned most AI cloud providers will lose independence by decade's end, per 247wallst.com. (247wallst.com)
- Not a group move: its cloud peers +0.3% (+0.2 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, volume spike (4.1× average volume on pace today so far): After its 7 volume spikes in the past 5 years, NBIS was higher a day later 5 times out of 7; half the outcomes fell between +0.7% and +9.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 156 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 71% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.4× its recent daily average.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Rosenblatt started coverage at Buy, target $304.
- 6 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 3 insider sales not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 4.1× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NBIS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
196.46 +5.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
210.18 +13.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 176.69 · prior close 186.01 | |
| Bargain buy side |
176.12 -5.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
164.62 -11.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 173.02 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 199.97 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 176.12 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 196.46 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 179.06 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 193.23 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 158.21 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 218.69 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 164.62 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 210.18 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 170.82 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 202.55 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NBIS's daily swings (about 5.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -7.4% | — | — | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -7.6% | -10.7% | -12.3% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -13.3% | +34.3% | +19.2% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -15.0% | +1.4% | +12.3% | — |
| Jul 14, 2026 | -7.8% | +11.8% | +33.5% | +8.2% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -17.0% | -5.7% | -16.9% | +2.9% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -12.3% | +2.0% | -5.0% | -0.6% |
| May 18, 2026 | -9.1% | +4.1% | +40.6% | +24.3% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among NBIS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 410.00 +132.0% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 18, 2026 |
286.69 +62.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 283.60 +60.5% |
| 50-day average | 223.06 +26.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 210.18 +19.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
186.01 +5.3% |
| Now | 176.69 |
| 200-day average | 173.58 -1.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 164.62 -6.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 84.00 -52.5% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 5, 2026 |
73.87 -58.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 2 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.