NRG

Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet

• NRG −1.75% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −2.5 pts of stock-specific move.
• Aftermath, big drop (Sep 28): After its 72 big drops in the past 5 years, NRG typically gained 1.9% over the next week (median) and was higher 61% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -1.4% and +5.7%. An ordinary week: +0.6%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big drops, that ranks #68 of 500.
• Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.