NSC
Moving with the market
- NSC +0.23% on the last session vs SPY −0.04%: +0.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 before the open: EPS $3.49 expected (18 analysts); it moved ±2.5% on average after its last 8 reports.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: Citigroup maintained Neutral, lowered target $376 → $347.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NSC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
326.87 +1.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
330.80 +2.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 324.49 · prior close 323.73 | |
| Bargain buy side |
320.62 -1.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
316.81 -2.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 319.61 | 2 in 10 days | 327.90 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 320.62 | 3 in 10 days | 326.87 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 321.56 | 4 in 10 days | 325.92 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 314.60 | 2 in 10 weeks | 333.13 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 316.81 | 3 in 10 weeks | 330.80 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 318.89 | 4 in 10 weeks | 328.64 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NSC's daily swings (about 1.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among NSC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 400.00 +23.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 356.11 +9.7% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 24, 2026 |
352.98 +8.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 330.80 +1.9% |
| 50-day average | 327.46 +0.9% |
| Now | 324.49 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
323.73 -0.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 316.81 -2.4% |
| 200-day average | 310.96 -4.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 297.00 -8.5% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 29, 2025 |
274.69 -15.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 44 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.