NXPI
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- NXPI +3.17% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +3.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Against the group: its semiconductors peers -0.9% (-1.0 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.2% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.8%): After its 54 big gains in the past 5 years, NXPI was higher a day later 20 times out of 54; half the outcomes fell between -2.2% and +0.7%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: Citigroup downgraded to Neutral, lowered target $370 → $260.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NXPI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
225.36 +2.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
231.08 +4.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 227.83 · prior close 220.83 | |
| Bargain buy side |
216.39 -2.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
211.03 -4.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 214.97 | 2 in 10 days | 226.85 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 216.39 | 3 in 10 days | 225.36 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 217.73 | 4 in 10 days | 223.98 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 207.95 | 2 in 10 weeks | 234.51 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 211.03 | 3 in 10 weeks | 231.08 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 213.95 | 4 in 10 weeks | 227.93 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NXPI's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among NXPI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 400.00 +75.6% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 26, 2026 |
330.06 +44.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 306.72 +34.6% |
| 200-day average | 244.16 +7.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 231.08 +1.4% |
| 50-day average | 229.59 +0.8% |
| Now | 227.83 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
220.83 -3.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 211.03 -7.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 190.00 -16.6% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
180.99 -20.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 16 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.