ON
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ON +6.01% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +5.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg (Oct 2): After its 12 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, ON typically lost 1.4% over the next day (median) and was higher only 25% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.4% and -0.0%. An ordinary day: +0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after crosses above the 200-day average, that ranks #485 of 497.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#235 H | +0.3%#245 H | +0.9%#251 H | +1.5%#268 M |
| Big drop (-4.0% or worse) | 61 | +0.4%#173 H | +0.9%#215 H | -2.1%#400 H | -3.4%#344 M |
| Big gain (+4.1% or better) | 61 | -1.1%#458 H | +0.3%#248 H | -0.4%#308 H | +1.9%#261 M |
| Earnings beat | 18 | +0.8%#167 M | +1.4%#177 M | +5.0%#83 M | +6.0%#140 M |
| Earnings miss | 1 | +1.9%– | +10.4%– | -8.9%– | -5.1%– |
| 52-week high | 6 | +1.7%#182 L | +3.1%#122 L | +5.4%#157 L | +6.5%#168 L |
| 52-week low | 4 | -3.1%#212 L | -1.8%#175 L | -1.2%#147 L | +11.0%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg latest session | 13 | -1.4%#485 M | -2.3%#481 M | -0.8%#308 M | -8.8%#354 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 14 | +0.9%#154 M | +1.0%#116 M | -0.5%#291 M | -8.3%#374 M |
| RSI oversold | 6 | -1.4%#295 L | -0.3%#313 L | +0.3%#270 L | +7.7%#161 L |
| RSI overbought | 13 | -0.6%#346 M | +1.3%#165 M | +2.2%#222 M | -5.2%#411 M |
| Reddit spike | 20 | +0.2%#43 H | -1.2%#69 H | -0.6%#60 M | +5.7%#34 M |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is ON's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Crossed below 200-day avg
The close moves below its 200-day moving average.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 14 | +0.87% (-0.9 to +2.8) | Medium | #154 of 497 | 64% | +0.42% |
-6%
+6%
|
|
| 1 week | 14 | +1.00% (-1.5 to +2.0) | Medium | #116 of 497 | 64% | -0.44% |
-5%
+11%
|
|
| 1 month | 14 | -0.54% (-8.5 to +4.9) | Medium | #291 of 496 | 50% | -0.49% |
-17%
+24%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 13 ≈8 indep. | -8.26% (-9.8 to +8.7) | Medium | #374 of 493 | 38% | -14.75% |
-35%
+50%
|
Range of outcomes: all of ON's crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Crossed below 200-day avg by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 5 | +3.5%L vs -0.2% | +2.0%L vs -0.4% | -4.9%L vs -2.9% | -9.8%L vs -1.2% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 9 | +0.4%M vs +0.3% | +0.3%M vs +0.7% | +4.9%M vs +2.0% | +10.2%L vs +3.8% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 8 | +1.1%M vs -0.1% | +1.8%M vs +0.2% | -4.5%M vs +0.5% | -9.8%L vs +0.4% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 6 | -0.2%L vs +0.3% | +0.4%L vs +0.3% | +10.4%L vs +0.3% | +21.8%L vs +1.8% |
The same event split by where ON stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest crosses below the 200-day average
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Aug 19 @ $76.58 | -3.6% on the day | -2.4% | -4.4% | -8.6% | … |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Nov 4 @ $48.28 | -4.3% on the day | +3.7% | +0.3% | +13.5% | +30.7% |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Sep 23 @ $50.42 | -2.1% on the day | +1.0% | -2.2% | +3.0% | +11.8% |
| Jul 7, 2025 | Jul 7 @ $54.61 | -3.5% on the day | +5.5% | +8.2% | -13.5% | -9.8% |
| Dec 3, 2024 | Dec 3 @ $69.81 | -5.6% on the day | -5.5% | -5.0% | -8.5% | -35.0% |
| Oct 31, 2024 | Oct 31 @ $70.49 | -4.3% on the day | +0.7% | +2.2% | +4.9% | -28.2% |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Sep 30 @ $72.61 | -2.4% on the day | -2.1% | -2.1% | +2.9% | -12.6% |
| Aug 22, 2024 | Aug 22 @ $73.37 | -4.3% on the day | +4.1% | +4.0% | -4.9% | -8.3% |
| Jul 11, 2024 | Jul 11 @ $74.24 | -3.1% on the day | +3.5% | +1.6% | -4.0% | -4.4% |
| Dec 18, 2023 | Dec 18 @ $83.76 | -2.2% on the day | +1.2% | +2.0% | -11.8% | -9.8% |
| Oct 20, 2023 | Oct 20 @ $84.83 | -2.5% on the day | -1.4% | -1.5% | -16.7% | -9.5% |
| Apr 27, 2023 | Apr 27 @ $69.98 | -2.7% on the day | +2.8% | +11.2% | +23.8% | +50.2% |
| Dec 22, 2022 | Dec 22 @ $62.12 | -4.5% on the day | +0.4% | +0.4% | +15.6% | +21.8% |
| Oct 11, 2022 | Oct 11 @ $59.47 | -4.0% on the day | -0.9% | +2.1% | +7.3% | +8.7% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.