ON
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ON +6.01% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +5.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg (Oct 2): After its 12 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, ON typically lost 1.4% over the next day (median) and was higher only 25% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.4% and -0.0%. An ordinary day: +0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after crosses above the 200-day average, that ranks #485 of 497.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#235 H | +0.3%#245 H | +0.9%#251 H | +1.5%#268 M |
| Big drop (-4.0% or worse) | 61 | +0.4%#173 H | +0.9%#215 H | -2.1%#400 H | -3.4%#344 M |
| Big gain (+4.1% or better) | 61 | -1.1%#458 H | +0.3%#248 H | -0.4%#308 H | +1.9%#261 M |
| Earnings beat | 18 | +0.8%#167 M | +1.4%#177 M | +5.0%#83 M | +6.0%#140 M |
| Earnings miss | 1 | +1.9%– | +10.4%– | -8.9%– | -5.1%– |
| 52-week high | 6 | +1.7%#182 L | +3.1%#122 L | +5.4%#157 L | +6.5%#168 L |
| 52-week low | 4 | -3.1%#212 L | -1.8%#175 L | -1.2%#147 L | +11.0%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg latest session | 13 | -1.4%#485 M | -2.3%#481 M | -0.8%#308 M | -8.8%#354 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 14 | +0.9%#154 M | +1.0%#116 M | -0.5%#291 M | -8.3%#374 M |
| RSI oversold | 6 | -1.4%#295 L | -0.3%#313 L | +0.3%#270 L | +7.7%#161 L |
| RSI overbought | 13 | -0.6%#346 M | +1.3%#165 M | +2.2%#222 M | -5.2%#411 M |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 20 | +0.2%#43 H | -1.2%#69 H | -0.6%#60 M | +5.7%#34 M |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is ON's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Mention spike (Trendy)
Daily mentions at least 3x the prior week's average (20 or more); entry the next session.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 20 | +0.21% (-1.1 to +1.8) | High | #43 of 92 | 50% | +1.05% |
-5%
+9%
|
|
| 1 week | 20 | -1.18% (-4.1 to +0.6) | High | #69 of 92 | 40% | -0.11% |
-19%
+9%
|
|
| 1 month | 20 ≈18 indep. | -0.62% (-7.0 to +8.0) | Medium | #60 of 91 | 45% | +0.29% |
-23%
+35%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 19 ≈14 indep. | +5.71% (+0.6 to +12.1) | Medium | #34 of 87 | 68% | +2.18% |
-40%
+54%
|
Range of outcomes: all of ON's mention spikes in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Mention spike (Trendy) by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 9 | -1.1%M vs -0.1% | -5.7%M vs -0.2% | -8.5%M vs -1.1% | +6.1%L vs +5.3% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 10 | +2.2%M vs +0.2% | +6.0%M vs +0.2% | +8.7%M vs +1.0% | +3.2%M vs -3.2% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 9 | -1.3%M vs -0.2% | -2.5%M vs -0.4% | -8.3%M vs -2.9% | +2.5%M vs -1.2% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 11 | +2.5%M vs +0.3% | +5.5%M vs +0.7% | +9.3%M vs +2.0% | +10.8%M vs +3.8% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 8 | -1.3%M vs -0.1% | -3.3%M vs +0.2% | -7.7%L vs +0.5% | +3.6%L vs +0.4% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 12 | +2.0%M vs +0.3% | +3.0%M vs +0.3% | +8.7%M vs +0.3% | +7.5%M vs +1.8% |
The same event split by where ON stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest mention spikes
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Jul 30 @ $83.74 | 43 mentions vs 0.9/day the week before | -2.5% | -6.5% | -13.3% | … |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Jun 23 @ $117.06 | 41 mentions vs 2.0/day the week before | -1.1% | -19.2% | -23.0% | -37.1% |
| Apr 22, 2025 | Apr 23 @ $36.62 | 53 mentions vs 3.4/day the week before | +9.1% | +8.4% | +15.5% | +51.4% |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Apr 3 @ $35.56 | 86 mentions vs 0.0/day the week before | -5.2% | -1.9% | +8.0% | +53.6% |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Oct 24 @ $70.08 | 22 mentions vs 2.9/day the week before | +1.7% | +0.6% | -0.7% | -23.1% |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Sep 19 @ $73.35 | 22 mentions vs 1.6/day the week before | -5.2% | 0.0% | -6.6% | -11.5% |
| Jul 24, 2024 | Jul 25 @ $67.54 | 25 mentions vs 2.3/day the week before | +3.9% | +6.5% | +13.1% | +0.6% |
| Apr 24, 2024 | Apr 25 @ $66.38 | 30 mentions vs 2.6/day the week before | +2.5% | +5.5% | +9.3% | +5.7% |
| Feb 22, 2024 | Feb 23 @ $76.19 | 58 mentions vs 11.0/day the week before | +1.8% | +6.5% | -3.5% | -6.0% |
| Feb 13, 2024 | Feb 14 @ $81.67 | 40 mentions vs 5.7/day the week before | -1.3% | -4.1% | -8.3% | -8.5% |
| Oct 30, 2023 | Oct 31 @ $62.64 | 21 mentions vs 3.3/day the week before | +3.5% | +6.6% | +13.9% | +12.1% |
| Jul 31, 2023 | Aug 1 @ $108.09 | 26 mentions vs 7.3/day the week before | -4.2% | -6.2% | -8.5% | -39.5% |
| May 1, 2023 | May 2 @ $79.17 | 46 mentions vs 9.7/day the week before | -0.7% | -0.5% | +11.1% | +30.8% |
| Feb 17, 2023 | Feb 21 @ $79.28 | 53 mentions vs 0.7/day the week before | -0.9% | -2.4% | -0.6% | +7.5% |
| Jan 4, 2023 | Jan 5 @ $59.74 | 23 mentions vs 1.3/day the week before | +4.6% | +8.7% | +34.6% | +26.1% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.