PAYX
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PAYX −1.88% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −2.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 2): After its 65 big drops in the past 5 years, PAYX typically gained 1.3% over the next month (median) and was higher 54% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -3.3% and +6.6%. An ordinary month: +0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big drops, that ranks #292 of 500.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | 0.0%#325 H | +0.2%#335 H | +0.1%#404 H | +1.5%#298 M |
| Big drop latest session (-1.9% or worse) | 68 | 0.0%#350 H | +0.2%#373 H | +1.3%#292 H | +2.6%#277 M |
| Big gain Oct 1 (+1.8% or better) | 66 | -0.1%#440 H | +0.1%#396 H | +0.4%#398 H | +0.4%#391 M |
| Earnings beat | 18 | +0.3%#110 M | +0.8%#125 M | -2.2%#453 M | -1.8%#491 M |
| Earnings miss | 1 | +2.2%– | +5.8%– | +8.1%– | -6.3%– |
| 52-week high | 8 | +0.6%#25 M | -1.3%#379 M | +0.2%#319 M | +1.8%#240 L |
| 52-week low | 7 | -0.2%#178 L | +2.2%#43 L | +2.5%#124 L | +4.6%#125 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 12 | 0.0%#293 M | +0.7%#69 M | +3.2%#53 M | +2.9%#300 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 11 | -0.2%#340 M | +1.5%#104 M | +0.6%#267 M | +3.1%#275 M |
| RSI oversold | 10 | +0.1%#285 M | -1.5%#463 M | +0.2%#441 M | +2.4%#354 M |
| RSI overbought | 14 | -0.1%#449 M | -0.1%#256 M | -3.3%#466 M | -1.9%#424 M |
| Reddit spike | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is PAYX's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
RSI overbought
The 14-day RSI rises above 70.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 14 | -0.15% (-0.3 to 0.0) | Medium | #449 of 501 | 36% | +0.11% |
-3%
+2%
|
|
| 1 week | 14 | -0.12% (-2.0 to +1.7) | Medium | #256 of 501 | 50% | +0.22% |
-6%
+6%
|
|
| 1 month | 14 | -3.29% (-5.0 to +0.3) | Medium | #466 of 501 | 43% | -1.33% |
-10%
+7%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 12 ≈9 indep. | -1.92% (-7.2 to +0.2) | Medium | #424 of 501 | 42% | -1.37% |
-16%
+26%
|
Range of outcomes: all of PAYX's overbought readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI overbought by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 10 | 0.0%M vs +0.1% | -0.1%M vs +0.3% | -3.3%M vs 0.0% | -0.3%L vs +2.0% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 1 | -1.6%– vs 0.0% | -3.4%– vs -0.1% | +0.3%– vs -0.1% | +25.6%– vs -0.1% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 13 | 0.0%M vs 0.0% | +0.5%M vs +0.3% | -3.4%M vs -0.2% | -0.8%M vs +1.5% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 14 | -0.1%M vs 0.0% | -0.1%M vs +0.1% | -3.3%M vs -0.1% | -1.9%M vs +0.4% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where PAYX stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest overbought readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | Aug 13 @ $125.40 | RSI 72.4, +4.2% on the day | -2.7% | -2.0% | -5.5% | … |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Jul 16 @ $113.52 | RSI 72.5, +4.3% on the day | -0.3% | -3.5% | +7.5% | … |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Jun 1 @ $101.38 | RSI 70.7, +5.6% on the day | -1.6% | -3.4% | +0.3% | +25.6% |
| May 19, 2025 | May 19 @ $150.38 | RSI 71.9, +1.4% on the day | -0.3% | +0.5% | -5.0% | -11.5% |
| Nov 6, 2024 | Nov 6 @ $138.41 | RSI 74.6, +6.3% on the day | -0.7% | -0.7% | -3.2% | +0.2% |
| Oct 1, 2024 | Oct 1 @ $131.14 | RSI 75.2, +4.9% on the day | 0.0% | -1.9% | +0.4% | +0.3% |
| Sep 3, 2024 | Sep 3 @ $122.89 | RSI 71.6, +0.6% on the day | +0.1% | +1.7% | +6.7% | +11.0% |
| Dec 18, 2023 | Dec 18 @ $116.24 | RSI 71.8, +0.7% on the day | +0.8% | -5.9% | -4.4% | -3.0% |
| Nov 30, 2023 | Nov 30 @ $110.99 | RSI 70.2, +0.7% on the day | +1.6% | +2.3% | -3.4% | +1.0% |
| Jul 13, 2023 | Jul 13 @ $108.05 | RSI 71.7, +1.7% on the day | +0.3% | +2.8% | +4.9% | -0.8% |
| Aug 8, 2022 | Aug 8 @ $114.11 | RSI 70.0, +1.0% on the day | 0.0% | +6.2% | -4.8% | -12.6% |
| Mar 30, 2022 | Mar 30 @ $118.55 | RSI 73.1, +3.3% on the day | -0.3% | +3.2% | -7.4% | -16.3% |
| Dec 22, 2021 | Dec 22 @ $114.85 | RSI 72.4, +5.5% on the day | +0.6% | +2.3% | -10.0% | -3.7% |
| Nov 23, 2021 | Nov 23 @ $108.01 | RSI 70.9, +0.9% on the day | -0.3% | -6.1% | +7.0% | -7.2% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.