PAYX
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PAYX +3.49% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +3.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.5% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.8%): After its 65 big gains in the past 5 years, PAYX was higher a day later 28 times out of 65; half the outcomes fell between -1.2% and +1.0%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PAYX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
110.62 +2.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
113.46 +4.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 112.15 · prior close 108.37 | |
| Bargain buy side |
106.17 -2.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
103.51 -4.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 105.46 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 111.36 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 106.17 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 110.62 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 106.83 | 4 in 10 days | 109.93 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 101.97 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 115.17 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 103.51 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 113.46 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 104.95 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 111.90 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PAYX's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | +2.4% | +3.6% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | +2.3% | -3.0% | -10.3% | — |
| Aug 13, 2026 | +4.2% | -2.0% | -5.5% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | +2.6% | +4.0% | +12.1% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | +3.0% | +4.0% | +10.7% | -5.1% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | +4.5% | +3.5% | +14.9% | -3.1% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +2.1% | +0.3% | +12.9% | +18.1% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | +5.6% | -3.4% | +0.3% | +25.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among PAYX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jun 6, 2025 |
151.89 +35.4% |
| Highest analyst target | 150.00 +33.7% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 31, 2026 |
127.34 +13.5% |
| 50-day average | 114.74 +2.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 113.93 +1.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 113.46 +1.2% |
| Now | 112.15 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
108.37 -3.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 103.51 -7.7% |
| 200-day average | 101.98 -9.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 96.00 -14.4% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 10, 2026 |
83.61 -25.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 43 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.